29 May 2014 (Geneva)
-
The International Air Transport Association (IATA) announced global
passenger traffic results for April showing a healthy increase in
demand. Total revenue passenger kilometers (RPKs)
rose 7.5% compared to April 2013, an improvement over March growth of
2.9%.
The
year-on-year comparison is somewhat biased by the timing of the Easter
holiday, which occurred in April 2014, a month later than in 2013. April
capacity increased 5.8%, propelling
load factor up 1.2 percentage points to 79.4 %.
“April’s
demand growth was a pleasant surprise in the face of the moderating
trend of recent months but it is not clear whether the acceleration in
demand is sustainable in view
of global economic trends including slower growth in China,” said Tony
Tyler, IATA’s Director General and CEO.
International Passenger Markets
April
international passenger demand was up 8.5% compared to the year-ago
period with airlines in all regions recording growth and the strongest
gains among Middle East carriers.
Capacity rose 6.9% and load factor climbed 1.2 percentage points to
79.0%.
·
Asia-Pacific carriers’
traffic rose 6.7% compared to the year-ago period
but capacity rose 7.7% and load factor slipped 0.7 percentage points to
75.7%. Economic conditions in the region do not support further
acceleration in demand growth, with China continuing to show weakness
and Japan starting to see some reversal of previous
growth momentum. In Japan, a recent sales tax increase caused
indicators for economic activity to decline sharply in April.
·
European carriers
saw
demand climb 7.9% in April versus April 2013. Economic activity in the
Eurozone continues to improve, albeit at rates that are below
expectations. Capacity rose 5.4% and load factor
climbed 1.9 percentage points to 81.4%, the highest for any region.
·
North American airlines
experienced a 4.9% rise in traffic compared to
April a year ago. Capacity rose 3.3% pushing load factor up 1.2
percentage points to 80.8%. Data suggest that underlying growth trends
in business activity are positive and downward pressure on employment is
easing, which should support stronger growth in
air travel demand in coming months.
·
Middle East carriers’
demand soared 18.6% in April, easily the strongest
growth for any region. Capacity climbed 13.1% and load factor jumped
3.8 percentage points to 80.8%. Airlines in the Middle East continue to
benefit from the strength of regional economies and solid growth in
business-related premium travel.
·
Latin American
airlines’
traffic rose 8.2% compared to April 2013. The outlook for Latin
American carriers remains broadly positive, with continued robust
performance of economies such as Colombia, Peru
and Chile, and the upcoming demand to be generated by the FIFA World
Cup in Brazil. On the downside, however, trade volumes have made no
progress this year compared to the highs reached at the end of 2013,
suggesting that acceleration in business-related travel
is unlikely in the near term. Capacity rose 5.2% and load factor
climbed 2.2 percentage points to 79.1%.
·
African airlines
had
the weakest demand growth, with traffic up 3.9% compared to April 2013,
while capacity rose 8.1%, resulting in a 2.7 percentage point drop in
load factor to 66.2%, the lowest load factor
for any region. The weakness could be in part reflecting adverse
economic developments in some parts of the continent, including the
slowdown of the major economy of South Africa.
Domestic Passenger Markets
Domestic
travel demand rose 5.8% in April compared to April 2013, with the
strongest growth occurring in Brazil, China and Russia.
The timing of the Easter holiday, which fell in April this year and in
March a year-ago, had a positive influence on comparisons in some
markets. Total domestic capacity was up 3.9%, and load factor rose 1.4
percentage points to 80.2%.
|
Year-on-Year Comparison
|
Apr 2014 vs Apr 2013
|
YTD 2014 vs. YTD 2013
|
||||
|
|
RPK
|
ASK
|
PLF
|
RPK
|
ASK
|
PLF
|
|
Australia
|
4.5%
|
3.9%
|
74.9%
|
3.9%
|
3.7%
|
75.6%
|
|
Brazil
|
11.1%
|
2.1%
|
79.1%
|
10.4%
|
3.0%
|
79.6%
|
|
China P.R.
|
9.9%
|
9.8%
|
79.8%
|
12.1%
|
11.9%
|
81.2%
|
|
India
|
2.7%
|
5.8%
|
73.9%
|
1.0%
|
7.4%
|
72.4%
|
|
Japan
|
5.4%
|
3.4%
|
60.1%
|
7.9%
|
5.6%
|
63.9%
|
|
Russian Federation
|
10.3%
|
5.0%
|
74.7%
|
11.2%
|
11.3%
|
69.6%
|
|
US
|
3.8%
|
1.1%
|
85.3%
|
2.1%
|
0.5%
|
83.7%
|
|
Domestic
|
5.8%
|
3.9%
|
80.2%
|
5.9%
|
4.9%
|
79.8%
|
·
Brazil,
China and Russia
saw near or above double digit, with economic growth significant
enough in China and Russia to sustain strong expansion in domestic air
travel. Growth in Brazil was also very strong. Although economic
fundamentals do not support the acceleration seen in 2014 so far, there
could be some positive impacts of preparation for
the FIFA World Cup.
·
Japan’s
domestic air travel market
saw demand rise 5.4% in April compared to a year ago, but this is a
slowdown on growth year-to-date (7.9%). An increase in the sales tax
could erode some of the previous progress made by the government to
boost growth and domestic consumption. It has appeared
to already have weakened the demand base for air travel.
The Bottom Line:
“In just a few days, the world air transport community will gather in Doha, Qatar for the 70th
IATA Annual General Meeting. The strong demand for air travel recorded
in April reinforces aviation’s importance as an enabler of global
economic growth and job creation, while the slowdown in Japan’s demand
growth illustrates the sensitivity of the sector—and the economic
benefits that it provides—to taxes. All those visiting
the Gulf for the AGM will have a unique opportunity to see the
potential for aviation to drive development when in a business-friendly
environment and with the right infrastructure,” Tyler said.