Showing posts with label Business-Economy. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Business-Economy. Show all posts

26 February, 2024

Allianz achieves record operating profit and shareholders' core net income

Allianz SE | Munich | Feb 23, 2024

Higher payout ratio, increased dividend per share plus new share buy-back announced.

12M 2023:   

  • Total business volume rises 5.5 percent to 161.7 billion euros.
  • Operating profit increases 6.7 percent to 14.7 billion euros primarily driven by the Life/Health business segment.
  • Shareholders’ core net income excellent at 9.1 billion euros, up by 30.3 percent.

4Q 2023:

  • Total business volume advances 7.8 percent to 39.6 billion euros.
  • Operating profit surges by 17.0 percent to 3.8 billion euros driven by the Life/Health business segment, supported by solid results in all other business segments.
  • Shareholders’ core net income of 2.4 billion euros, up by 46.4 percent.
  • Strong Solvency II capitalization ratio of 206 percent1 after proposed dividend payout.

Outlook:

  • 2024 operating profit target at 14.8 billion euros, plus or minus 1 billion euros2

Other:  

  • Management to propose a dividend per share of 13.80 euros, an increase of 21.1 percent from 2022.
  • Regular dividend payout ratio increased to 60 percent (from 50 percent). This new dividend policy shall already apply to the dividend for fiscal year 2023.
  • In addition to this, a renewed share buy-back program of up to 1 billion euros announced.

“Allianz extended our track record of delivering a record operating profit and core net income, consolidating our leading position as one of the world’s most resilient global insurers and active asset managers. 

Our results demonstrate the trust that our customers place in Allianz, and in the resilience and potential of our business model and our people. Our Property-Casualty business saw strong growth while we supported our customers affected by elevated levels of natural catastrophes. Our Life/Health segment delivered profitable growth as we developed attractive solutions to protect our customers from the effects of inflation on their savings, and in our Asset Management business we achieved robust net inflows in a volatile capital market environment.

The discipline of our strategy, execution, and capital management bolsters our operating profit outlook for 2024, our new dividend policy, and our renewed share buy-back program. In the coming year, we will continue to focus on unlocking the benefits of our scale to further increase our productivity, and on converting our excellent customer experience into profitable customer growth.” - Oliver Bäte, Chief Executive Officer of Allianz SE

Total business volume

12M 2023: Total business volume rose by 5.5 percent to 161.7 billion euros, driven by the Property-Casualty business segment due to positive price and volume effects, supported by the Life/Health business segment mainly as a result of strong growth in the United States. This was partially offset by lower revenues in the Asset Management business segment.

Internal growth, which adjusts for foreign currency translation and consolidation effects, was at 8.0 percent, primarily driven by the Property-Casualty and Life/Health business segments.

4Q 2023: Total business volume rose by 7.8 percent to 39.6 billion euros, driven by all business segments. The increase in the Life/Health business segment was primarily driven by the United States and Italy. Growth in the Property-Casualty business segment was mainly price driven, while our Asset Management business segment benefited from higher performance fees.

Internal growth was 10.9 percent, driven by all business segments.

Earnings

12M 2023: Operating profit increased 6.7 percent to 14.7 (12M 2022: 13.8) billion euros. This was mainly due to our Life/Health business segment while the result of our Property-Casualty business segment increased slightly amid higher claims from natural catastrophes. Operating profit from our Asset Management business segment softened slightly as a result of foreign currency translation effects.

Shareholders’ core net income grew to 9.1 (7.0) billion euros. This was driven by an improved operating profit in the current period, as well as by an improved non-operating result due to the one-time AllianzGI US Structured Alpha provision captured in the prior-year period. Net income attributable to shareholders advanced to 8.5 (6.4) billion euros, up by 33.0 percent.

Core earnings per share (core EPS)3 increased to 22.61 (16.96) euros. 

Core return on equity (RoE)3 grew to 16.0 percent (12.7 percent).

The Board of Management has decided to increase the payout ratio to 60 percent from 50 percent and proposes a dividend per share of 13.80 euros for 2023, an increase of 21.1 percent from 2022.

On February 22, 2024, Allianz has announced a new share buy-back program of up to 1 billion euros. 

4Q 2023: Operating profit was strong at 3.8 (4Q 2022: 3.2) billion euros, up by 17.0 percent, driven by the Life/Health business segment, primarily due to a higher result in protection and health and transitional impacts linked to the adoption of IFRS 17 in the United States in the prior year. The Asset Management business segment benefited from higher revenues as a result of higher performance fees.

Shareholders’ core net income increased to 2.4 (1.6) billion euros due to a higher operating profit and non-operating result. Net income attributable to shareholders doubled to 2.2 (1.1) billion euros.

Solvency II capitalization ratio

The Solvency II capitalization ratio was 206 percent at the end of 2023 compared with 201 percent at the end of 2022. When including the application of transitional measures for technical provisions, the Solvency II capitalization ratio was 229 percent at the end of 2023 compared with 230 percent at the end of 2022.

Segmental highlights

“We’ve achieved another year of record results and all operating segments finished the year above or close to their operating profit target mid-points. 

  • In our Property-Casualty business we recorded strong revenue growth, driven by healthy pricing and higher volumes. Growth was spread across our entities, reflecting the strength of our diversified global franchise. Our focus on technical excellence helped us to successfully mitigate the impact of inflation on our operating profit, which faced an above-average level of natural catastrophes. Our investment result benefited from higher interest rates.
  • The operating profit in our Life/Health segment exceeded our outlook mid-point and was also well above the prior year. Our value creation is supported by a healthy new business margin that we maintained by providing attractive solutions to our clients, allowing us to record a solid new business development.
  • In Asset Management, our operating profit was above our outlook mid-point, and we achieved positive net inflows in a volatile market environment. A competitive cost-income-ratio and an increase in our third-party assets under management bode well for future profitability.  

We will continue to focus on generating attractive and sustainable returns for all of our stakeholders while not compromising on our resilience. We enter 2024 with confidence and target a full-year operating profit of 14.8 billion euros, plus or minus 1 billion euros.” - Claire-Marie Coste-Lepoutre, Chief Financial Officer of Allianz SE

Property-Casualty insurance: Strong business growth

12M 2023: Total business volume increased by 8.4 percent to 76.5 (70.6) billion euros. Adjusted for foreign currency translation and consolidation effects, internal growth was excellent at 11.2 percent, supported by a price effect of 6.9 percent, a volume effect of 4.0 percent and a service effect of 0.3 percent. Total growth was spread among many entities with Allianz Partners, AGCS and Germany being the main contributors.

Operating profit rose 1.2 percent to 6.9 (6.8) billion euros, driven by a higher operating investment result, which was partly offset by lower other operating and insurance service results.

The combined ratio increased by 0.6 percentage points to 93.8 percent (93.3 percent). The loss ratio went up 0.9 percentage points to 69.3 percent mainly due to higher claims from natural catastrophes and less run-off. This was partially offset by a favorable impact from discounting and an improvement in the expense ratio by 0.3 percentage points to 24.6 percent (24.9 percent) driven by the acquisition cost ratio. 

4Q 2023: Total business volume increased by 7.3 percent to 17.6 (16.4) billion euros. Adjusted for foreign currency translation and consolidation effects, internal growth was very strong at 9.8 percent mainly due to a 7.6 percent price effect. The volume effect was 1.8 percent, and the service effect was 0.5 percent. Total growth was spread among many entities, while the primary contributors were Germany, AGCS, Central and Eastern Europe and Italy.

Operating profit rose slightly by 1.6 percent to 1.6 (1.6) billion euros, due to a higher operating investment result which was partly offset by lower other operating and insurance service results.

The combined ratio went up 0.6 percentage points to 94.9 percent (94.3 percent). The loss ratio went up 2.3 percentage points to 71.4 percent, reflecting higher claims from natural catastrophes, which were partially offset by a better run-off result. The expense ratio improved by 1.7 percentage points to 23.5 percent due to lower acquisition cost and administrative expense ratios.

Life/Health insurance: Strong operating profit

12M 2023: PVNBP, the present value of new business premiums, increased to 67.3 (66.2) billion euros, primarily due to higher volume in the United States and Allianz Re, partially offset by lower single premiums and economic impacts primarily from discounting in Germany.

Operating profit increased to 5.2 (4.2) billion euros, above our outlook mid-point, mainly driven by the United States, primarily due to transitional impacts linked to the adoption of IFRS 17 in the prior year period, as well as improved Protection and Health performance in France and Asia Pacific. The contractual service margin (CSM) release was fully in line with expectations at 5.0 (5.0) billion euros.

Contractual service margin (CSM) increased to 52.6 (52.2) billion euros, mainly driven by a strong normalized growth of 4.9 percent supported by favorable economics with lower interest rates and higher equity markets, which was partly offset by non-economic variances, due to model and assumption changes.

The new business margin remained stable at 5.9 percent (5.9 percent). The value of new business increased to 4.0 (3.9) billion euros, due to higher volumes in the United States and Allianz Re, partially offset by business mix effects in the United States.

4Q 2023: PVNBP increased to 16.7 (15.2) billion euros, driven by higher volumes in the United States and in Italy, partially offset by foreign currency translation effects in the United States, Asia Pacific, and Türkiye, as well as economic impacts primarily from higher discounting in Germany and Italy.

Operating profit increased to 1.4 (1.1) billion euros. The main contributors were the United States, Asia-Pacific and France. The release of the contractual service margin (CSM) was 1.3 (1.4) billion euros.

Contractual service margin (CSM) increased to 52.6 (52.1) billion euros. New business and expected in-force return were higher than in the previous quarter, which led to normalized growth of 1.6 percent in the fourth quarter. Negative non-economic movements, including experience variances and assumption changes, were largely offset by positive economic developments.

The new business margin (NBM) changed to 5.9 percent (6.4 percent). The value of new business (VNB) remained stable at 1.0 (1.0) billion euros. Higher sales in the United States and Italy were partially offset by foreign currency translation effects as well as business mix effects in the United States.

Asset Management: Solid operating profit and resilient net inflows

12M 2023: Operating revenues softened by 1.8 percent to 8.1 billion euros as higher performance fees were offset by lower AuM-driven revenues. Adjusted for foreign currency translation effects operating revenues grew 0.6 percent.

Operating profit was 3.1 (3.2) billion euros, exceeding the mid-point of our outlook. It was down 2.2 percent from the prior-year period but rose by 0.2 percent when adjusted for foreign currency translation effects. The cost-income ratio (CIR) was stable at 61.3 percent (61.2 percent).

Third-party assets under management were 1.712 trillion euros as of December 31, 2023, up by 77 billion euros from the end of 2022. Favorable market effects of 103.9 billion euros and net inflows of 21.5 billion euros more than offset negative currency translation effects of 46.4 billion euros.

Total assets under management were 2.224 trillion euros at the end of 2023, up 82 billion euros from the end of 2022, and in line with the results in third-party asset management, including positive market effects of 130.0 billion euros, net inflows of 3.1 billion euros and negative currency translation effects of 49.6 billion euros.

4Q 2023: Operating revenues reached 2.3 billion euros, up 10.1 percent, as performance fees increased significantly, and also AuM-driven revenues went up. Adjusted for foreign currency translation effects operating revenues grew 14.6 percent.

Operating profit increased in comparison to the prior-year period to 912 (805) million euros. Adjusted for foreign currency translation effects, operating profit rose by 18.1 percent. The cost-income ratio (CIR) improved to 60.5 percent (61.6 percent).

Third-party assets under management were 1.712 trillion euros as of December 31, 2023, up by 42 billion euros from the end of the third quarter 2023. Of this, favorable market effects of 96.7 billion euros could more than offset negative currency translation effects of 46.8 billion euros and net outflows of 6.5 billion euros.

Total assets under management were 2.224 trillion euros at the end of the fourth quarter, up 62 billion euros from the end of the third quarter, and in line with the results for the third-party assets under management, including positive market effects of 124.6 billion euros, negative currency translation effects of 50.6 billion euros and net outflows of 12.3 billion euros.

25 February, 2024

تحليل سوق لليوم عن رانيا جول محلل أسواق في الشرق الأوسط في XS.com




يتم تداول النفط الخام (WTI) عند 77.16 دولار للبرميل، ويتم تداول خام برنت عند 81.81 دولار للبرميل خلال تعاملات اليوم الجمعةبعد أن  انخفضت أسعار النفط بنسبة 1٪ تقريبًا حيث أعلن العراق عن إعادة فتح مصفاة كانت مغلقة لمدة عشر سنوات، ووسط توقعات بأن دول أوبك + لن تقرر تخفيضات كبيرة في الإنتاج. بعد أن أعلنت أنها ستحتاج على الأرجح إلى تمديد تخفيضات الإنتاج الطوعية إلى ما بعد الربع الأول من العام، لكن أي تخفيضات كبيرة أخرى في العرض ليست متوقعة.

تزامن هذا مع تراجع مؤشر الدولار (USDIDX) هذا الأسبوع، حيث تشهد الأسهم انتعاشاً كبيراً، مع تداول العديد من المؤشرات عند أعلى مستوياتها على الإطلاق. ويتطلع المتداولون إلى الأسبوع المقبل الذي سيكون حافلاً بالبيانات المهمة التي ستتسبب في تحرك السوق بصورة كبيرة والتي لديها القدرة على تحديد اتجاهات السوق.

وأعتقد أن أسعار النفط لا تعطي أهمية يحسب لأي مخاطر جيوسياسية جديدة من الشرق الأوسط، ولكنها تتأثر بالأحداث والأخبار الاقتصادية، حيث سيتم انعقاد قمة منتدى لندن للطاقة 2024 يومي الاثنين والثلاثاء الأسبوع المقبل، وهو الحدث الذي عادة ما يتصدر عناوين الأخبار المؤثرة في سوق النفط من خلال قرارات كبار قادة شركات النفط العالمية. وسيتبع ذلك أسبوع الطاقة الدولي من الثلاثاء إلى الجمعة.

حيث شهدت إدارة معلومات الطاقة (EIA) زيادة أخرى في تغيرات مخزون النفط الخام الأمريكي من الزيادة السابقة البالغة 12.018 مليون برميل بالإضافة إلى 3.514 مليون برميل إضافية لهذا الأسبوع، وسوف يترقب المتداولون أي تكرار لتشديد العقوبات الجديدة من الولايات المتحدة والاتحاد الأوروبي على النفط تجاه روسيا وأطراف أخرى في البلدان المتهمة بتداول النفط الروسي

ومن وجهة نظري، خفت حدة التوترات الجيوسياسية قليلاً أمس، حيث توجد دلائل على أن تبادل الرهائن ومفاوضات وقف إطلاق النار المحتملة لا تزال مطروحة على الطاولة في صراع غزة المستمر. لكن تصاعدت التوترات فور إعلان الحوثيين في اليمن أنهم سيواصلون استهداف السفن المدنية في البحر الأحمر، ويعتزمون تصعيد معدل الهجمات، وهم الآن يشملون السفن المملوكة للولايات المتحدة والمملكة المتحدة التي قد تعبر قناة السويس. يمكن أن يتسبب في ارتفاع أسعار النفط على المدى الطويل.

التحليل الفني لـ أسعار النفط الخام (WTI):

تحاول أسعار النفط الارتفاع إلى 80 دولار، فمع استعداد المتداولين لحزمة العقوبات الأمريكية والاتحاد الأوروبي المقرر إصدارها اليوم الجمعة ضد روسيا. فهذه العقوبات ليست ضد روسيا فحسب، بل أيضًا ضد بعض الأطراف الصينية والهندية التي يُزعم أنها تساعد روسيا. وعلى الرسم البياني بالرغم من الاختراق الفني للسعر، لم يتمكن النفط من الارتفاع، لذا فإن العودة إلى 90 دولار أو حتى 85 دولار تبدو بعيدة المنال في الوقت الحالي

الرسم البياني لأسعار النفط الخام (WTI) - منصة XS.com MT4

وفنياً، لا يزال سعر 80 دولار بمثابة المستوى المحوري للسعر، مع وجود 79.66 دولار كمستوى مقاومة أول يجب اختراقه لاستمرار الارتفاع. فإذا لم يتجه مؤشر القوة النسبية (RSI) إلى منطقة ذروة الشراء بسرعة كبيرة، فيمكن للسعر الوصول إلى 84.58 دولار و89.64 دولار كأهداف تالية في الاتجاه الصعودي. وسيكون الهدف النهائي في هذه الموجة الصاعدة هو 92.69 دولار  حسب تسلسل القمم اعتبارًا من نوفمبر 2022. 

وعلى الجانب السلبي، من المفترض أن يكون الدعم  الرئيسي عند المتوسط ​​​​المتحرك البسيط على مدى 55 يومًا عند 74.20 دولار قبل اختبار خط الاتجاه الصعودي بالقرب من 72.93 دولارً. فإذا تم اختراق خط الاتجاه هذا، فسيكون الدعم التالي بالقرب من 67.11 دولار  ويجب اختراقه لمواصلة أي هبوط. ومع رؤية القاع الثلاثي في ​​يونيو ويوليو 2023، فمن المفترض أن يكون هذا المستوى قويًا بما يكفي لدعم ارتداد السعر.

مستويات الدعم: 77.15 – 76.40 – 75.20

مستويات المقاومة: 77.60 – 78.50 – 79.73


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