DGCX - A Year in Review and Look Forward to 2015

2014 was exceptional for DGCX in many ways. The Exchange upgraded its EOS platform to enhance the value offering to members and accelerate DGCX's growth plans. We rolled out a series of significant contracts - demonstrating the Exchange's robust product innovation. We grew and expanded our community of members and participants. We won great accolades from industry peers for our innovation-led growth. Before I go any further, I want to pay a tribute to Gary Anderson, our former CEO, whose tragic demise last year was a huge loss not only to DGCX, but also to the wider industry. All those who had the privilege to work with Gary, would agree that his vision and leadership in driving DGCX forward was immense. He will be greatly missed and will always be remembered. As we begin 2015 - the year we complete a decade of operations, I would like to take this opportunity to highlight some of our great achievements in the past 12 months... Unique offerings In 2014, DGCX made a big push to expand its emerging market currency and index-based products. We also introduced unique products such as the Plastics Futures. Early in the year, DGCX listed the region's first ever Plastics contract - strategically timing it with the launch of Dalian Commodity Exchange's polypropylene futures contract. In this market where more than 50 million tonnes of plastics is produced a year - the potential for the DGCX Plastics contract is immense. We re-introduced the Indian Rupee Option contract for trading, launched two MSCI contracts, and listed two new pairs of Mini Indian Rupee Cross Currency Futures. The Exchange ended 2014 on a high note, launching three new Emerging Market currencies - Russian Ruble, Korean Won and South African Rand. With the launch of all the above contracts, our focus was to develop our product portfolio to provide the diversity which is necessary to service both institutional and retail customers. We will continue to focus on growing the portfolio and serving a wide range of customers with our new products. For 2015, we have a strong line-up of products. The highlight will be the spot gold contract which is currently in the near-to-final stages of launch. Spot gold is an eagerly awaited GCC focused contract that will mark a major milestone in the history of the Exchange. In addition, we are planning to launch more gold, currency, equity and soft commodity related products. More to follow on all of these! Global Competitiveness I'm pleased to say that DGCX's fruitful partnership with Cinnober has resulted in an advanced technology infrastructure of global standards and one that supports the Exchange's aggressive business development and growth plans. With the latest upgrade in technology, DGCX is able to offer its member community additional functionalities and enhanced efficiencies. One of the key features of the latest upgrade is that DGCX can now offer trading, clearing and settlements all in different currencies, including UAE Dirhams. With a cutting-edge technology, DGCX's global competitiveness has been elevated to a whole new level! Growing community Our member base had been growing steadily. Several new members from UAE, Asia and Europe joined us - expanding the DGCX community and pushing it to greater heights. Some of the recent members include China's Nanhua Futures, Singapore's UOB Bullion & Futures and Abu Dhabi's Mena Corp. We also signed an MoU with China Financial Futures Exchange(CFFEX) and look forward to closely working with them on areas of new product development, risk management, business strategy and market surveillance. Major steps underway As you know, the derivatives industry is in the midst of an intense regulatory shift towards centrally cleared derivatives contracts via Central Counterparties that aim to minimize the systemic risk of OTC derivatives. The Dubai Commodities Clearing Corporation (DCCC) as the only Commodity Derivatives CCP in the region supports this shift by enabling DGCX to provide investors with centrally-cleared products that are a more secure alternative to OTC derivatives. Last year, we introduced new settlement and collateral deposit facilities in UAE Dirhams via the DCCC which means that the clearing members will not only be able to settle their transactions in UAE Dirhams (AED) in addition to US Dollars but also place collateral deposits in AED. I am confident that these new facilities will generate significant additional trading and settlementefficiencies for our members and further boost liquidity in the DGCX marketplace. DCCC has also developed and launched capital efficiency tools to make engagement with DGCX more cost effective and competitive. Going forward, our endeavor is to establish DCCC as the 'CCP of choice' within the GCC. We have been working with regulatory bodies to make sure that the DCCC is complaint with global standards. Additionally, we have already applied to European Securities and Markets Authority (ESMA) for TC-CCP (third country central country party) recognition, which will allow European banks and institutions to take exposure on DGCX markets and the UAE. Industry recognition The greatest accolades are those we win from our industry peers. DGCX was - for the second year in a row - recognized as the Exchange of the Year 2014 in the Middle East and Australia by Futures & Options World. As you'd know this is no small feat for a young Exchange like DGCX. On that note - on behalf of the entire DGCX management - I would like to thank each one of you for your hard work and support, without which all these accomplishments wouldn't have been possible. i

Commodity update: All eyes on energy

Head of Commodity Strategy at Saxo Bank Ole Sloth Hansen

The first full trading week of 2015 kicked off with a lot of focus on the continued fall in energy markets (as this is helping to destabilise other asset classes). 

Stocks were initially pulled lower by the steep fall in crude and its negative impact on the energy sector, while government bond yields fell further on the prospect of falling inflation, and — in the case of the Eurozone — a return to deflation for the first time since October 2009.

The mid-week bounce in oil markets may have been shallow, but it proved very supportive for stocks. It also took some of the shine off the bond markets' rally. It's no wonder that it's not just oil traders who are paying close attention to what happens to black gold at the moment.

It's a commodity that can easily come to occupy your time. Photo: iStock

Yellow gold, meanwhile, continues to defy gravity, rising despite what should be negative impact from the rising dollar.This dislocation has given the metal a new lease on life since the beginning of December. 

Instead of focusing on the continuing dollar rally, traders instead turned their attention to worries about the Greek election later this month. A win for the anti-austerity Syriza party carries some potentially wide-ranging implications for the Eurozone and the euro. Falling US bond yields have also been lending support, as this reduces the opportunity cost of holding precious metals.

Gold remains stuck in a wide $1170 to $1240 range while XAUEUR has broken above 1,000 euros to reach its highest level since September 2013 as it benefits from the continued dislocation between the dollar and gold.

Overall, it was a mixed week for commodities with the Bloomberg commodity index finishing almost where it started. Significant losses across the energy sector were offset by gains in precious metals and agriculture, most noticeably in the soft sector where coffee and sugar flew out of the starting block on dry weather concerns in Brazil. 

Industrial metals were driven lower by copper, which fell to a four-year low on concerns about economic activity in China as producer prices extended a record run of declines. The rising dollar also created strong headwinds and if it hadn't been for a supply concern driven rally in nickel, the sector loss would have been even more noticeable.  

As the table above highlights, energy remains the hardest-hit of the different commodity sectors. The current global supply glut of crude oil — estimated at close to 2 million barrels per day — continues to exert a lot of pressure on the spot market. So much so, in fact, that "super contango" has returned for the first time since the recession days of early 2009. 

Super contango occurs when the gap between a low spot price and a higher forward price reaches a level where it makes economic sense to buy spot crude, rent a supertanker and put it into floating storage while selling the crude back at the higher future price at the same time. 

Last time this occurred was following the demand collapse in 2008 and early 2009, when spot Brent crude oil slumped to a discount of more than $10 dollars compared to its delivery-date price six months hence.

At its peak, global volumes of fuels in floating storage topped 100 million barrels in late 2009 and while this highlights the current supply glut, it could also help ease price pressures as trading houses with access to storage facilities will remove crude from the market so long as this opportunity exists. 

As far as this goes, we  will only say "ease" because it would take more than floating storage to stop the current uncertainty in oil markets. The current supply glut will require some actual supply destruction before it is safe to call a bottom in the market. 

With Opec not willing to reduce production and Russia producing the most oil since the Soviet Union era, traders will keep a close eye on developments among oil producers in the US and Canada. 

So far we have seen an 8% reduction in active US oil rigs since October; in Canada, the number has fallen by more than half. We have also heard news of small drilling companies going bust and drilling contracts being torn up. 

The Calgary, Alberta skyline; as Canadian tar sands production slows the booming economy of the oil-rich province will likely contract as well. Photo: iStock

These types of reports will help slow the selloff, but until we see actual reductions and/or a rise in demand, the search for equilibrium will continue (as will uncertainty and high volatility). 

A significant chunk of US shale producers are likely producing at a loss already, but due to hedging programmes, many are currently able to offset these losses against financial gains on futures contracts sold at much higher levels. 

Others may just simply have to pump away and generate cash in order to service loans. 

So long as the the risk of revisiting 2008 lows exists, we favour trading a potential surprise recovery through options. During the past week, two-thirds of the 30 most traded options were puts, but at the top of this table we have also seen increased interest for $65 and $70 calls on the June WTI crude futures contract. 

At a current futures price in June around $51 per barrel, these are trading at $1.05/b and $0.65/b respectively.  

أخبار السلع: كل العيون تترقب قطاع الطاقة

أولي سلوث هانسن، رئيس استراتيجية السلع في ساكسو بنك

انطلق أول أسبوع تداول كامل في عام 2015 بتركيز عال على الهبوط المستمر في أسواق الطاقة (مما يساهم في زعزعة استقرار فئات الأصول الأخرى).

انخفضت معدلات المخزونات في البداية نتيجة الهبوط الحاد في النفط الخام وتأثيره السلبي على قطاع الطاقة بينما انخفضت عائدات السندات الحكومية على خلفية تراجع التضخم وعودة الانكماش في منطقة اليورو لأول مرة منذ أكتوبر 2009.

ربما يكون الارتفاع في أسواق النفط الذي شهدناه في منتصف الأسبوع ضئيلاً لكنه أثبت دعمه القوي للمخزونات وبالتالي محا بعض البريق الذي شهده انتعاش أسواق السندات ولم يعد مستغرباً إيلاء المزيد من الأطراف بخلاف تجار النفط المزيد من الانتباه إلى ما يحدث في أسواق الذهب الأسود في هذه الآونة.

تستطيع السلع بسهولة احتلال تفكيرك. الصورة: iStock

استمر الذهب الأصفر من ناحية أخرى بالارتفاع متحدياً الجاذبية بغض النظر عما قد يشكل تأثيراً سلبياً من ارتفاع الدولار حيث أعطى هذا الانتقال المعدن الأصفر فرصة جديدة للحياة منذ بداية ديسمبر. 

وبدلاً من التركيز على انتعاش الدولار القادم، حوّل المتداولون اهتمامهم إلى المخاوف حول الانتخابات اليونانية في وقت لاحق من الشهر الجاري يحث يحمل فوز حزب سيريزا المناهض للتقشف احتمال حدوث بعض التعقديات الواسعة على منطقة اليورو وعلى اليورو نفسه. قدمت كذلك عائدات السندات المنخفضة في الولايات المتحدة المزيد من الدعم حيث قلل هذا من تكلفة الفرصة الخاصة البديلة بامتلاك المعدن الثمين.

بقي الذهب حبيس المجال بين 1170 دولار 1240 دولار بينما اخترق معدل الذهب مقابل اليورو فوق 1.000 يورو ليصل بذلك إلى أعلى مستوى له منذ سبتمبر 2013 بعدما استفاد من الاضطراب الحاصل بين الدولار والذهب.

 وبصورة عامة، كان الأسبوع مختلطاً بالنسبة للسلع مع انتهاء مؤشر بلومبيرج للسلع تقريباً حيث بدأ.  توازنت الخسائر الكبيرة في قطاع الطاقة مع الأرباح التي حققتها المعادن الثمينة وقطاع الزراعة خاصة في قطاع المواد الاستهلاكية حيث غردتت القهوة والسكر خارج السرب على خلفية الأجواء الجافة في البرازيل. 

بينما انخفضت المعادن الصناعية بسبب النحاس الذي هبط إلى أدنى مستوياته في أربع سنوات مدفوعاً بالمخاوف المتعلقة بالنشاط الاقتصادي في الصين مع استمرار أسعار المنتجين في الانخفاض إلى مستوى قياسي تسبب ارتفاع الدولار كذلك في فرض رياح عكسية قوية وإن لم يكن من أجل انتعاش النيكل بسبب المخاوف المتعلقة بالعرض، قد يتعرض القطاع للمزيد من الخسائر الفادحة.  

وكما يوضح الجدول أعلاه، بقي قطاع الطاقة الأكثر تضرراً في قطاعات السلع المختلفة. تستمر تخمة العرض العالمية الراهنة-والمقدرة بحوالي 2 مليون برميل يومياً تقريباً- بفرض المزيد من الضغط على سوق العقود

العاجلة. وبالتالي وفي واقع الأمر، عاد "الاستلام فائق التأجيل" لأول مرة منذ أيام الركود التي شهدناها في 2009. 

يحدث الاستلام فائق التأجيل عندما تصل الفجوة بين سعر العقود العاجلة المنخفضة وسعر العقود الآجلة المرتفعة إلى مستوى يجعل الحس الاقتصادي يدفع إلى بيع النفط الخام في عقود عاجلة واستئجار ناقلة نفط ضخمة ووضعها في مخزن عائم تزامنأً مع بيع النفط الخام بعقود مستقبلية ذات سعر أعلى في نفس الوقت. 

حصل هذا آخر مرة بعد انهيار الطلب في 2008 وأوائل 2009 حيث انخفضت العقود العاجلة الخاصة بخام برنت إلى فرق يزيد على 10 دولارات مقارنة بسعر توصيله بعد ستة أشهر.

وصلت الكميات العالمية من الوقود في المخازن العائمة إلى 100 مليون برميل في أواخر 2009 وفي الوقت الذي يسلط فيه هذا الضوء على تخمة العرض الحالية، يمكن كذلك أن يساعد في تخفيف ضغط السعر حيث ستزيل دور التداول التي تملك إمكانية الوصول إلى مرافق التخزين النفط الخام من السوق طالما بقيت هذه الفرصة متاحة. 

وبقدر ما سيبقى هذا الحال، نعبر عن الأمر بقولنا "يخفف" لأن ايقاف التقلب الحالي في أسواق النفط سيتطلب أكثر من المخازن العائمة. ستتطلب تخمة العرض الراهنة بعض اضطرابات العرض الفعلية قبل أن يكون من الآمن الدعوة إلى الوصول للقاع في السوق.

مع عدم استعداد أوبك لتخفيض الانتاج وارتفاع الانتاج الروسي إلى أعلى مستوياته منذ حقبة الاتحاد السوفييتي، سيبقي المتداولون جل اهتمامهم على التطورات الحاصلة بين منتجي النفط في الولايات المتحدة وكندا حيث شهدنا حتى الآن انخفاضاً بنسبة 8% في منصات النفط الأمريكية النشطة منذ أكتوبر. وانخفض الرقم بما يعادل النصف في كندا وتناهى إلى مسامعنا كذلك خبر مفاده أن شركات الحفر الصغيرة قد أفلست وتم إلغاء عقود الحفر. 

كالجاري، ألبيرتا سكايلاين: مع تباطؤ الانتاج الكندي من الرمال الزيتية، سيتقلص الاقتصاد المزدهر في الولاية الغنية بالنفط كذلك الأمر الصورة: iStock

سيساعد هذ النوع من التقارير على تراجع عمليات البيع الشرهة ولكن، وإلى حين حدوث تراجعات فعلية و/أو ارتفاع في الطلب، سيستمر البحث عن التوازن (وعدم الاستقرار والتقلب كذلك الأمر).

يبدو أن العديد من منتجي النفط الصخري الأمريكي ينتجون على خسارة بالفعل ولكن وبسبب برامج التحوط، يستطيع الكثير منهم في الوقت الحالي موازنة خسائرهم مقابل الأبراح المالية الناتجة عن العقود المستقبلية المباعة بمستويات عالية جداً. 

ويمكن للبعض الآخر الضخ بعيداً والحصول على الأموال من أجل دفع القروض.

وطالما بقي خطر العودة إلى أسعار عام 2008 المنخفضة موجوداً، نفضل تداول احتمال حدوث انتعاش مفاجئ في عقود الخيارات خلال الأسبوع الماضي، كان ثلثا عقود الخيارات الأكثر تداولاً هي عقود آجلة بخيار البيع ولكننا رأينا في قمة الجدول ارتفاع الفائدة للعقود الآجلة بخيار البيع بمعدل 65 دولار و70 دولار في العقود المستقبلية لخام غرب تكساس الوسيط في يونيو. 

وبما أن سعر العقود المستقبلية الحالية في شهر يونيو تحوم حول 51 دولار للبرميل، يتم تدولها بمعدل 1.05 دولار للبرميل و0.65 دولار للبرميل على التوالي.

Five New Year Car Resolutions -

Save hundreds of bucks on car maintenance costs with these 2015 car resolutions - 

As we ring in the new year and close the book on 2014, it is time for us to reflect on the car resolutions most of us never kept. Car owners set goals but often neglect getting maintenance on their cars to keep them in top shape and bring their cars in only when repairs are needed. Carmudi, the fastest way to buy and sell cars online, shares with you some easy-to-keep 2015 car resolutions that’ll save you plenty of bucks down the road in the upcoming year.

Shaun the Sheep Visits UAE for the First Time

Flocks of children expected at Sharjah’s Sahara Centre to see popular character and friends

Sharjah, January 07, 2015: Younger visitors to the Sahara Centre will receive more than they baaa-gained for over the next 10 days thanks to the visit of popular children’s TV character, Shaun the Sheep. Along with a number of his friends, the Aardman Animations favourite and star of the forthcoming movie that bears his name will be entertaining guests at the Sahara lifestyle and leisure centre from January 8-18th. 

Thailand to celebrate "2015 Discover Thainess" campaign with grand opening celebration

Dubai , 8 January, 2015 – The Tourism Authority of Thailand (TAT) has scheduled the grand opening celebration of the “2015 Discover Thainess” campaign for 14 January, 2015, with a range of spectacular events including a colourful parade and extravagant performances to be held in the heart of Bangkok.