7 January 2015 (Geneva)
- The International Air Transport
Association (IATA) reported November 2014 data for global air freight
markets showing that demand measured in freight tonne kilometers (FTK)
grew 4.2% compared to November 2013. Capacity grew by 3.3% over the
previous November. Compared to October 2014, air
freight demand expanded by a healthy 0.8%.
The
most significant growth was recorded by carriers in the Asia-Pacific
and Middle East regions, at 5.9% and 12.9%, respectively.
Carriers in these regions captured the vast majority of the global
increase (93%). Carriers in Asia-Pacific accounted for 55% of the total
year-on-year growth (with a market share of 39.7%), while airlines in
the Middle East region contributed a further 38%
of growth (with a market share of 13.3%).
An
important development emerged at the end of 2014 which, if it
continues, bodes well for air freight markets. Air freight is closely
linked to world trade (by value about a third of goods traded
internationally are shipped by air). Air cargo growth stagnated from
2011 as world trade volumes basically grew in tandem with domestic
production. A strong growth trend in cross-border trade emerged
over the second half of 2014 (while domestic industrial production
remained stable) which has had a positive impact on air cargo volumes.
“More
goods are being traded internationally and that is fueling the growth
in air freight. It was clear in November that most of
that growth is being captured by carriers in the dynamic and relatively
business-friendly Asia-Pacific and Middle East regions. This year we
expect air freight markets to expand by 4.5%, outpacing projected growth
in world trade (4.0%). But that optimism is
tempered by the many macro-economic and political risks that continue
to impact trade flows,” said Tony Tyler, IATA’s Director General and
CEO.
Regional Analysis in Detail
Asia-Pacific airlines
reported
a 5.9% increase in FTKs with a 4.0% capacity increase. Although
business confidence in China has weakened, government policies to
encourage consumption are having a positive impact.
Japan, although weakened by a recent consumption tax increase, has seen
business confidence improve. Reflecting these trends, emerging Asian
economies have seen a sharp rise in imports over the last six months.
European airlines
saw
a small 0.9% rise in FTKs while capacity expanded by 2.6%. The Eurozone
economy continues to flatline, affected by renewed concerns over the
Euro and Russian sanctions. Export markets
in Asia and North America have potential but this is not outweighing
the negative impact of weak home markets.
North American carriers
recorded
a FTK decline of 0.3% and a fall in capacity of 2.6%. This was despite a
ports strike on the West Coast which helped shift some demand from sea
to air. Underlying indicators for
the US economy remain sound, which should support a return to growth.
Middle Eastern carriers
continued
their strong performance, with FTK growth of 12.9% and a 17.1% increase
in capacity. The region’s efficient hubs continue to provide a strong
platform for connecting long-haul
freight shipments.
Latin American airlines saw FTKs fall by 0.7%, reflecting
economic weaknesses across the continent, but particularly in Brazil and Argentina. Capacity was reduced 0.5%.
African airlines
expanded
FTKs by 10.5%, maintaining the positive trend of previous months. Load
factors also improved as capacity was trimmed by 2.9%.
“The
air cargo industry enters 2015 propelled by solid growth trend.
Shippers have a choice in modes of transport and, like customers
everywhere, demand ever greater value. To turn the growth into
sustained stronger profitability, the air cargo industry faces the
challenge of investing in more efficient and higher quality processes
and facilities that will give it the winning edge over its
competitors,” said Tyler.
Enhancing
air freight’s competitiveness is at the top of the agenda for the World
Cargo Symposium in Shanghai (10-12 March). The event
is expected to draw 1,000 leading air freight executives to debate
industry competitiveness and transformation under the theme of
‘Improving the Customer Experience’.
