Strong
Mid-year Results Disguise Patchy Regional Performance
5 August 2014 (Geneva) – The International Air Transport
Association (IATA) released data for global air freight markets showing 2.3%
growth in demand (measured in freight tonne kilometers) over June 2013. That is
slower than the 4.9% growth reported for May.
Nevertheless,
overall growth for the first six months of 2014 stands at 4.1% compared to the
same period in 2013. That is much stronger than the weak 1.4% increase reported
for the full-year 2013 over 2012 levels. The strengthened growth has been
underpinned by improving global trade and stronger business activity over the
past year.
“At the
half-way point of the year, it is clear that overall cargo demand is much
stronger than in 2013. Carriers in Asia-Pacific and the Middle East have been
the biggest beneficiaries of the improved market conditions. Europe is doing
reasonably well, albeit still in recovery mode. The weak spot is the Americas,”
said Tony Tyler, IATA’s Director General and CEO.
“The general
improvement in the economic environment is always good news for air cargo. This
may not however, be a recovery as usual. First there are a lot of risks out
there—from conflicts and sanctions to potential national defaults and fear of
the Ebola outbreak. Second, while air cargo is slowly emerging from two years
in the doldrums time has not stood still. Logistics has become an even more
intensely competitive sector. Shippers value faster end-to-end transit times,
greater reliability and improved efficiency. More clearly than ever, the
building blocks for the future of air cargo are found in global programs such
as e-Freight and Cargo 2000. These are helping the entire value chain to
deliver on the expectations of their customers,” said Tyler.
Asia-Pacific airlines’ freight volume grew 4.9% in June,
continuing the trend of strengthening results following the declines in the
first quarter of the year. For the year-to-date, Asia-Pacific cargo is up 4.6%,
and with Chinese manufacturing expanding again for the first time since
December 2013, growth looks set to continue. Capacity expanded 4.3%.
European carriers saw freight volumes fall 1.5% compared
to June 2013, possibly reflecting recent weakness in manufacturing and export
activity. Overall, for the year-to-date, European cargo is up 3.2%, a stronger
performance than in 2013. Capacity in June rose 2.1%.
North American airlines’ freight volumes declined 0.1%,
compared to June 2013, and for the year-to-date are up just 1.6%. The overall
performance may reflect the weakness in trade volumes that followed the severe
weather events in the first quarter. Recent data points to much stronger
business activity which could support stronger air cargo volumes in the months
ahead. Capacity in June fell 1.0%.
Middle East carriers continue to expand strongly. Air
cargo growth was 7.0% in June and is up 10.0% for the year-to-date. Airlines in
the region are capitalizing on growth opportunities by expanding services to
fast-growing emerging markets, such as Uganda and Mexico. Capacity expanded
8.6% year-on-year.
Latin American airlines suffered a sharp contraction of 3.4%
in June. The overall performance for the year-to-date has also been a
disappointing -0.1%, the only region to be in decline this year. Sluggish trade
growth and in particular the weakness of the Brazilian economy is dragging down
growth. Capacity in June was up by 1.6%.
African carriers grew 4.8% in June, much stronger than
the year-to-date average of 3.1%. Growth has been affected by a slowdown in
some African economies, notably South Africa. Improving trade data, however,
points to a more optimistic outlook for the rest of the year. Capacity grew
0.3% in June, year-on-year.
