Columbia Climate School identifies 65 'Red Zone' nations across four separate climate scenarios.
43 nations in Sub-Saharan Africa, eight in Latin America and the Caribbean, six in Asia-Pacific, six in the Middle East, and two in Europe are most at-risk.
With support from The Rockefeller Foundation, the "Climate Finance Vulnerability Index" aims to help close the gap between risk assessments and funding allocations.
NEW YORK, June 25, 2025 /PRNewswire/ -- The Columbia Climate School, with support from The Rockefeller Foundation, has unveiled a novel index that integrates countries' vulnerabilities to cyclones, floods, droughts, earthquakes, conflicts, and other hazards with their ability—due to availability and access to financing—to take prevention, recovery, and rebuilding actions. Illustrating current and future risk exposure scenarios of 188 nations, the Climate Finance (CliF) Vulnerability Index's interactive dashboard identifies the 65 most at-risk, 'Red Zone' nations – two-thirds of which are in Africa. The overarching goal of the CliF Vulnerability Index is to promote more comprehensive risk assessment standards, target resources for various bands of vulnerability, and ultimately, inform how to more effectively reach communities facing various types of disaster and financial risks.
"Climate shocks are becoming more frequent and intense, yet many of the nations facing the highest threats are also heavily indebted, limiting their access to financial markets," said Jeff Schlegelmilch, Associate Professor of Professional Practice of Climate, and Director of the National Center for Disaster Preparedness at the Columbia Climate School. "Traditional aid models based on GDP per capita or income level don't capture the unique and growing risks of climate exposure along with limited access to capital to manage these risks – the CliF Vulnerability Index provides a more realistic picture of risk, including the access to financing to address climate vulnerabilities."
Heatwaves, floods, and other extreme events caused by a warming world could result in over 14.5 million deaths and US$12.5 trillion in global economic losses by 2050, according to the World Economic Forum. The United Nations Environment Programme also estimates that the annual adaptation financing gap could be as much as US$387 billion a year, and without significant investment, the World Bank calculates that climate change could push up to 132 million people into poverty by 2030. At the same time, high borrowing costs and limited access to finance keep many nations trapped in a cycle of climate disaster response and recovery, without truly making headway toward climate mitigation and adaptation.
"As governments around the world prepare for the Fourth International Conference on Financing for Development next week, the gap between development goals and the needed financing has never been larger," said Eric Pelofsky, Vice President for Global Economic Recovery at The Rockefeller Foundation. "The CliF Vulnerability Index launches an important conversation about the data that should drive scarce resources to vulnerable countries that are facing immense challenges in accessing financing. By using the CliF Vulnerability Index, donors and funders can prioritize support for countries that are potentially living one disaster away from crisis."
Key Findings:
- Users of the CliF Vulnerability Index can filter results through four scenarios: using a 2050 or 2080 timeline, as well as 'optimistic' and 'pessimistic' climate scenarios. These scenarios account for varying degrees of emissions, population growth, and international collaboration on climate mitigation and adaptation. Of the 65 nations that appear in the Red Zone, 47 remain in that category across all four scenarios.
- More than 2 billion people live in Red Zone nations, where the risk of a major hazard and/or disaster is high and access to finance is dwindling. Almost all the 65 nations in the Red Zone are low- and middle-income nations as defined by the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), and many are home to some of the fastest-growing populations in the world.
- Of the 65 nations to appear in the Red Zone, 43 (66%) are in Sub-Saharan Africa and account for nearly 1.2 billion people. Africa has a continent-wide population that is expected to more than double to 2.7-3.7 billion by 2070, and 21 nations are in debt distress or at high risk of entering debt distress. The African nations that appear in the bottom 10 across the four climate scenarios are: Angola, Burundi, The Gambia, Guinea-Bissau, Eritrea, Lesotho, Malawi, South Sudan, Sudan, and Zambia.
- There are six nations in the Asia-Pacific region that appear in the Red Zone, and they are home to more than 520 million people. In 2024, the WMO termed Asia the "world's most disaster-hit region from weather, climate and water-related hazards." The six nations are: Bangladesh, Kiribati, Myanmar, Nepal, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka.
- Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) are home to eight Red Zone nations and more than 100 million people. The LAC region is vulnerable to climate change and requires investment of between $470 million and $1.3 trillion to deliver on the Paris Agreement goals, according to the Inter-American Development Bank. Of the eight LAC nations that appear in the Red Zone, seven do so across all four climate scenarios. The eight nations are: Belize, Bolivia, Ecuador, El Salvador, Guatemala, Haiti, Honduras, and Venezuela.
- Just two European nations appear in the Red Zone. The two nations, which are home to 39 million people, are Ukraine and Cyprus. Cyprus appears in the 2050 optimistic, 2050 pessimistic, and 2080 pessimistic scenarios. Ukraine appears in 2050 optimistic and 2080 optimistic scenarios.
- Across all four climate scenarios, eight of the 10 nations best positioned to respond are OECD members. They are Denmark, Estonia, Japan, Norway, South Korea, Switzerland, Sweden and United States. Non-OECD members to appear in the top 10 are China, Thailand and United Arab Emirates (UAE). China appears across all four climate scenarios, Thailand appears in the 2050 optimistic and 2080 optimistic scenarios, and UAE in the 2050 pessimistic and 2080 pessimistic.
Developed by an interdisciplinary team from the National Center for Disaster Preparedness, based at the Columbia Climate School, and the Center for Global Energy Policy, at Columbia University's School of International and Public Affairs and also an affiliate center of the Columbia Climate School, the CliF Vulnerability Index integrates data on debt sustainability, financial integration and sophistication, and governance considerations that influence lending conditions.
