The upward revision reflects lower jet fuel prices over the
forecast period as well as improvements to the industry’s structure and
efficiency already visible in quarterly results this year. Passenger markets
continue to outperform the cargo business which remains stagnant both on
volumes and revenues.
IATA expects 2014 to be a second consecutive year of
strengthening profitability (beginning from 2012 when airlines posted a net
profit of $7.4 billion). Industry net profit margins, however, remain weak at
1.1% of revenues in 2012, 1.8% in 2013 and 2.6% in 2014. Within this aggregate
forecast for the entire industry, performance of individual airlines and
regions will vary considerably.
The anticipated $19.7 billion profit in 2014 would come on projected
revenues of $743 billion. While this would be the largest absolute profit for
the airline industry—outstripping the $19.2 billion net profit that the
industry returned in 2010 - it is important to note that 2010 revenues were
$579 billion. The net profit margin in 2010 was 3.3%, some 0.7 percentage
points higher than the 2.6% expected for 2014.
“Overall, the industry’s fortunes are moving in the right
direction. Jet fuel prices remain high, but below their 2012 peak. Passenger
demand is expanding in the 5-6% range—in line with the historical trend.
Efficiencies gained through mergers and joint ventures are delivering value to
both passengers and shareholders. And product innovations are growing ancillary
revenues,” said Tony Tyler, IATA’s Director General and CEO.
“We must temper our optimism with an appropriate dose of
caution. It’s a tough environment in which to run an airline. Competition is
intense and yields are deteriorating. Cargo
volumes haven’t grown since 2010 and cargo revenues are back at 2007 levels. The passenger business is expanding more
robustly. Some airlines will out-perform our estimates and others will
under-perform. But, on average, airlines will only make a net profit of about $5.94
per passenger in 2014,” said Tyler.
IATA outlook forecasts are estimates of the aggregate
performance of the global air transport sector and should not be taken as in
indicator of individual airline performance which can vary greatly from the global
outlook, including variations from its directional shifts.
Forecast Drivers
Economic Cycle: Global
GDP is expected to expand by 2.0% in 2013 and 2.7% in 2014. This is unchanged
from the September forecast. The general trend of improvement in developed
economies – particularly for the US - and relatively disappointing growth in
the BRICS countries is expected to continue into 2014.
Passenger Demand:
Passenger demand is robust and passenger numbers are expected to reach 3.1
billion in 2013 and rise by 6% to 3.3 billion in 2014. Nonetheless, competition
remains intense and industry-wide average yields are expected to fall by 0.2%
in 2013 and by 0.6% in 2014.
Ancillary Revenues:
Ancillary revenues are a key driver of improved financial performance. Worldwide
ancillary revenues have risen to an estimated $13/passenger. Airlines are
underpinning their profitability with innovative products and services. On a
per passenger basis, ancillary revenues are greater than the $5.94/passenger
profit that airlines are expected to earn in 2014. Without ancillaries, the
industry would be making a loss from its core seat and cargo products.
Improved Industry
Structure: Improved industry structure and efficiency gains should allow
the industry to leverage the improving economic cycle to boost profitability
significantly in 2014. Airlines in North America, where consolidation has
progressed the furthest, are expected to generate the largest profits and best
margins in both 2013 and 2014. European airlines, still suffering from the weak
European economy, are expected to see some improvements in profitability from
successful joint ventures over the North Atlantic.
Cargo Demand: Cargo
demand remains largely stagnant. Airlines are expected to carry 51.6 million
tonnes of cargo in 2013, increasing to 52.5 million tonnes in 2014. This modest
increase in demand is expected to be offset by a decline in yields (-2.1% in
2014). Despite the stagnation in the air cargo industry, belly capacity
continues to be introduced as airlines seek to maximize on the robust passenger
demand. Cargo revenues are expected to be $60 billion in both 2013 and 2014.
While revenues peaked in 2011 at $67 billion, for 2013 and 2014 they are
basically unchanged from 2007 levels.
The “on-shoring” of production is having an adverse impact
on the cargo business. This is being driven by two forces. Since the recession
we have seen a rise in protectionist measures by governments aiming to
stimulate domestic economies. In tandem the effects of earlier liberalization are
fading as costs rise in previously low labor-cost locations. These conditions
are likely to extend over several years.
The World Trade Organization’s Bali agreement to liberalize
markets and improve trade facilitation is expected to be good news for the air
cargo industry. “Removing the red tape that restricts and slows trade is a
positive goal. It aligns well with our own efforts to bring efficiency to air
cargo through e-Freight,” said Tyler.
Fuel: A slight
reduction in jet fuel prices is a major driver of the improved outlook.
Following easing of tensions in Iran, oil prices are expected to see a slight
downward movement from $108.2/barrel (Brent) in 2013 to $104.5/barrel in 2014.
This is $0.80 and $0.50 less per barrel than previously forecast in September for
2013 and 2014 respectively. This positive trend will be amplified by a
reduction in the crack spread of jet fuel resulting in savings of $2 billion in
2013 (to $211 billion) and $5 billion in 2014 (to $210 billion) for the overall
industry fuel bill compared to the September forecast.
Regional Variations
Profitability varies greatly by region as well as by airline.
All regions are expected to see improvements in profitability in 2014 compared
to 2013. With the exception of Africa (which remains unchanged), all regions
are expected to see better profitability in 2014 than previously forecast.
North America:
North American airlines are expected to post a $5.8 billion profit in 2013,
increasing to $8.3 billion in 2014. In both years North American carriers will outperform
the aggregate industry to deliver both the highest absolute profits and the
strongest EBIT margins (4.8% in 2013, 6.4% in 2014). Mergers on home markets
and joint ventures on some international markets have helped to improve asset
utilization to very high levels and generate efficiencies, as well as deliver benefits
to passengers from the merged networks. However, higher government fees on
airlines and their passengers, as a result of the Congressional budget deal,
risk damaging both airlines, investors and passengers.
Europe: European
airlines will see profitability improve in 2014 over 2013. Net profits for 2013
are expected to be $1.7 billion, rising to $3.2 billion in 2014. Efficiencies
from joint ventures over the North Atlantic are expected to be a major
contributor to this improvement, offsetting slightly the impact of the
continuing economic slump across the Eurozone. Despite this near doubling of
absolute profits, EBIT margins for the region’s airlines (1.3% in 2013, 2.0% in
2014) are the weakest next to those of Africa. The region remains burdened by high
costs, cumbersome regulation and high taxes. For example, the UK government
continues to increase its Air Passenger Duty unabated, having just confirmed the
next increase to the world’s largest aviation tax in April 2014.
Asia-Pacific: Asia-Pacific
airlines are expected to post a $3.2 billion profit in 2013 which will be a third
consecutive year of declining profits. The trend is expected to reverse in 2014
with a slight uptick to $4.1 billion. In both years, the region is expected to
deliver the second largest absolute profit. The region’s EBIT margin of 4.1% in
2013 is expected to improve slightly to 4.4% in 2014. The profitability of the
region’s airlines is subdued by the ongoing weakness in cargo demand and the
impact on supply-demand conditions of an expected delivery of 710 new aircraft
next year. The Asia-Pacific carriers are the largest players in global cargo
markets with a nearly 40% market share. Home market performance has also been
mixed. Despite a shift to a lower economic growth trajectory, China’s domestic
market continues to see strong growth in RPKs of 12% or more. India’s domestic
market had weakened sharply in line with the economy, but there has been a
recent revival of air travel with growth rates back to low double digit
figures. Japan, by contrast, has only seen a very low rise in domestic air
travel and the size of the market is still not back to pre-tsunami levels.
Middle East:
Middle East airlines are expected to return a net profit of $1.6 billion in 2013,
increasing to $2.4 billion in 2014. EBIT margins also continue to improve—from
3.8% in 2013 to 4.7% in 2014.The region’s hubs, particularly in the Gulf,
continue to expand in support of growing long-haul connectivity. Strong oil
revenues—as oil prices stay high—continue to support travel generated by
domestic activity and the development of the tourist industry. The Syrian
crisis has not impacted traffic beyond its borders.
Latin America:
Latin America is expected to return a $700 million profit in 2013, increasing
to $1.5 billion in 2014. The region’s EBIT margin also continues to improve
from 3.1% in 2013 to an expected 5.1% in 2014. Airlines in the region are
burdened with infrastructure that is not keeping pace with the growth in
demand. While some countries, such as Chile, have worked hard to evolve a
policy framework on which airlines can grow and drive economic growth, others
have policies which are counterproductive. For example, Mexico has implemented
a tax on jet fuel which adds to the industry’s number one cost in contravention
of global agreements. Brazil’s import parity pricing for jet fuel has a similar
impact. And Venezuela continues to block repatriation of some $2.6 billion of the
industry’s cash.
African Airlines:
The outlook for African airlines is unchanged from September with a $100
million loss in 2013 switching to a $100 million profit in 2014. It is the
weakest financial performance of any region with an EBIT margin of -0.5% in
2013 improving to 0.7% in 2014. The region’s carriers face stiff competition on
intercontinental routes while intra-African connectivity is underdeveloped as a
result of market access restrictions. Additionally, high operating costs, heavy
taxation and infrastructure deficiencies hamper the region’s airlines.
Improving safety remains the top priority for the region. Governments have
agreed, through the Abuja declaration, to aim for world class safety by 2015.
Risks
Airlines have made great strides at improving their
businesses in the face of very adverse business conditions. Where they have
been able to improve the industry structure through mergers and joint ventures,
consumers have benefitted with more efficient connectivity and this has
translated to improved financial results.
Fuel consumption provides a good example of the efficiencies
that airlines are putting in place. In the face of rapidly rising fuel costs,
airlines have dramatically improved fuel efficiency. In 2004 airlines
transported two billion passengers and 38 million tonnes of cargo using 65
billion gallons of fuel. In 2014 we expect some 3.3 billion travelers and 52
million tonnes of cargo—increases of 64% and 37% respectively. Over the same
period fuel uplift has grown by only 17% to 76 billion gallons.
“Airlines have shown that they can rise to the challenges of
a difficult trading environment. That’s good news for economies and consumers
that depend on global connectivity. But I am increasingly concerned that
governments have not fully appreciated the critical role that aviation plays in
our connected world. Regulatory and tax burdens incrementally, but
significantly, rise year-on-year. Some governments even appear to be backtracking
on deregulation and are micro-managing in areas such as passenger rights,” said
Tyler.
“In 2014 we will mark 100 years since the first scheduled
commercial air service was inaugurated. Over aviation’s first century, our
world has changed for the better in many ways. The industry evolved into a
powerful draft horse connecting people and growing economies. Governments
should keep this in mind when developing policies or deciding taxes. Supporting
aviation’s enabling capabilities pays big economic dividends,” said Tyler.
التوقعات المالية لخطوط الطيران تزداد قوة
صافي الأرباح العالمية يصل إلى 12.9 مليار دولار أمريكي
في 2013
12 ديسمبر 2013 – جينيف: أعلن الاتحاد الدولي
للنقل الجوي (أياتا) عن مراجعة إيجابية للتوقعات المالية للصناعة. فمن المتوقع
لخطوط الطيران في 2013 أن تسجل صافي عائد أرباح يصل إلى 12.9 مليار دولار. ومن
المتوقع أيضا أن يتحسن هذا الرقم ليصل إلى 19.7 مليار دولار في 2014. يعد كلا
الرقمين تحسنا عن توقعات شهر سبتمبر والتي تنبأت بصافي أرباح 11.7 مليار دولار
للصناعة في 2013 لتزداد إلى 16.4 مليار دولار في 2014.
وتعكس
المراجعة الإيجابية الأسعار المنخفضة لوقود الطائرات خلال فترة التوقعات وكذلك
التحسن في بنية وفعالية الصناعة، وهو الأمر الواضح في النتائج الربع سنوية هذا
العام. وتستمر أسواق الركاب في التغلب في أدائها على أسواق الشحن، حيث ظلت الاخيرة
ثابتة في معدلها وأرباحها.
وتتوقع
أياتا أن يكون عام 2014 العام الثاني على التوالي لقوة الربحية (بدءا من 2012
عندما سجلت خطوط الطيران صافي ربح 7.4 مليار دولار). وبالرغم من ذلك، تظل هوامش صافي
ربح الصناعة ضعيفة عند معدل 1.1% من الإيرادات في 2012 و 1.8% في 2013 و 2.6% في
2014. ومع هذا التوقع الشامل للصناعة بأكملها، سيتنوع أداء المناطق المختلفة وخطوط
الطيران الفردية.
وستأتي
الأرباح المتوقعة في 2014 التي ستبلغ 19.7 مليار دولار مصاحبة لعوائد تبلغ 743
مليار دولار. وبينما ستكون هذه أكبر أرباح لصناعة الطيران على الإطلاق – متغلبة
على أرباح عام 2010 التي بلغت 19.2 مليار دولار – من الهام ملاحظة أن عوائد عام
2010 كانت 579 مليار دولار. وكان صافي هامش الربح في 2010 3.3%، وهو 0.7 نقطة أعلى
من المتوقع لعام 2014 وهو 2.6%.
وتعليقا
على ذلك، يقول توني تايلر، المدير العام والرئيس التنفيذي لأياتا: "بشكل عام،
تتجه أرباح الصناعة في الاتجاه الصحيح. وتظل أسعار وقود الطائرات عالية، ولكن أقل
من ذروتها في 2012. ويتسع طلب الركاب بمعدل 5-6% تماشيا مع التوجه التاريخي. وتلبي
الفعالية الناتجة من المشروعات المشتركة والجديدة قيمة جيدة لكلا من الركاب وحاملي
الأسهم. وتعمل المنتجات المبدعة على نمو العوائد الإضافية."
ويضيف
تايلر: "يجب أن يصاحب الحذر تفاؤلنا. فالبيئة الحالية تعد قاسية لإدارة خطوط
الطيران. فالمنافسة قوية والعوائد تتدهور. لم تنمو معدلات الشحن منذ 2010 وعادت
إيرادات الشحن إلى معدلات 2007. لكن ينمو قطاع الركاب بشكل كبير. ففي المجمل، ستصل
صافي أرباح خطوط الطيران إلى 5.94 دولار للراكب في 2014."
تعد
توقعات أياتا تقديرات للأداء العام لقطاع النقل الجوي العالمي ويجب أن لا يتم
أخذها كمؤشر على أداء خطوط طيران بعينها والتي يمكنها أن تتنوع بشدة عن التوقعات
الدولية.
مؤشرات التوقعات
العجلة الاقتصادية: من المتوقع أن ينمو
الناتج الإجمالي المحلي العالمي بمعدل 2.0% في 2013 و 2.7% في 2014. لم يتغير ذلك
عن توقعات سبتمبر. وسيستمر التوجه العام للتحسن في الاقتصاديات النامية في 2014.
طلب الركاب: من المتوقع أن يصل عدد
الركاب إلى 3.1 مليار في 2013 ويرتفع بمعدل 6% إلى 3.3 مليار في 2014. ولكن تظل
المنافسة قوية ومن المتوقع ان يهبط متوسط دخل الصناعة بمعدل 0.2% في 2013 و 0.6%
في 2014.
الإيرادات الإضافية: تعد الإيرادات
الإضافية محرك أساسي للأداء المالي المتحسن. فقد ارتفعت عالميا إلى توقع 13 دولار
للراكب الواحد، وهو ما يعد اكبر من 5.94 دولار للراكب المتوقعة لعام 2014.
الطلب على الشحن: يظل الطلب على الشحن
ثابتا بشكل كبير. من المتوقع أن تحمل خطوط الطيران 51.6 مليون طن من الشحن في
2013، زيادة من 52.5 مليون طن في 2014.
وبالرغم من ثبات الشحن الجوي، يستمر تقديم سعة الناقلات حيث تسعى خطوط
الطيران إلى استغلال زيادة طلب الركاب. من المتوقع أن تصل أرباح الشحن إلى 60
مليار دولار في 2013 و2014. فلم تتغير الأرباح عن مستويات 2007.
الوقود: يعد التحسن البسيط في
أسعار الوقود دافع كبير لتحسن التوقعات. فمن المتوقع أن تشهد أسعار الوقود هبوط
بسيط من 198.2 دولار للبرميل في 2013 إلى 104.5 دولار للبرميل في 2014.
التنوعات الإقليمية
تتنوع
الربحية بشكل كبير بين المناطق وكذلك خطوط الطيران الفردية. من المتوقع أن تشهد
جميع المناطق تحسنا في الربحية في 2014 بالمقارنة بعام 2013. باستثناء إفريقيا
(والتي ستظل دون تغيير)، من المتوقع أن تشهد جميع المناطق ربحية أفضل في عام 2014
بالمقارنة بالتوقعات السابقة.
الشرق الأوسط: من المتوقع أن تسجل
خطوط طيران الشرق الأوسط صافي ربح يصل إلى 1.6 مليار دولار في 2013، ويزداد إلى
2.4 مليار دولار في 2014. وتستمر مراكز المنطقة، خاصة الخليج، في التوسع في دعم
نمو التواصل بعيد المدى. كما تستمر إيرادادت النفط القوية – حيث تظل أسعار النفط
عالية – في دعم السفر الناتج عن النشاط المحلي وتطور صناعة السياحة. ولم يكن هناك
تأثير للأزمة السورية على الحركة خارج حدودها.
