Two-way trade returns

 

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Two-way trade returns

By Daniela Hathorn, senior market analyst at Capital.com

Markets have started the week on the defensive, marking a notable shift after months of largely one-way traffic in risk assets. Equities are under pressure, gold has extended its recent pullback and investors are rotating back toward more traditional defensive assets, with the US dollar, Treasury yields and oil prices all moving higher.

Gold (XAU/USD) daily chart

Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.

The catalyst is a combination of renewed geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and a growing belief that the Federal Reserve will need to maintain  its restrictive stance in the face of persistent inflation. Friday's US jobs report reinforced that narrative. Labour market resilience continues to suggest that the US economy is capable of absorbing higher interest rates, reducing the urgency for the Fed to ease policy. Instead, markets are increasingly leaning towards the next move from the Fed being a rate hike. That has pushed yields higher and supported the dollar, while simultaneously weighing on assets that have benefited from expectations of lower rates, including gold and parts of the technology sector.

The focus now turns to this week's CPI report, which has the potential to either validate or challenge that view. After hotter CPI and PPI readings in recent months, investors will be watching closely for signs that inflation pressures are becoming more embedded in the economy. A stronger-than-expected print would likely reinforce the "higher-for-longer" narrative and put further upward pressure on yields. Conversely, a softer reading could help stabilise sentiment and ease concerns that the Fed may need to tighten policy further. At the same time, geopolitical developments remain an important part of the equation. Renewed strikes between Iran and Israel have helped rebuild some risk premium in energy markets, pushing oil higher and adding another layer of inflationary pressure. The combination of higher energy costs and resilient economic data creates a more challenging backdrop for policymakers and investors alike.

Perhaps the most important development is that markets are finally showing signs of two-way price action after weeks of relentless gains. The Nasdaq and S&P 500 had become increasingly stretched from both a technical and positioning perspective, with investors overwhelmingly focused on AI-driven earnings growth and the prospect of an eventual peace deal in the Middle East. Those themes remain intact, but they are no longer operating in a vacuum. Higher yields, firmer inflation expectations and renewed geopolitical uncertainty are forcing investors to reassess valuations. That does not necessarily mean the bull market is over. Earnings growth remains exceptionally strong, particularly among large-cap technology companies, and the long-term AI narrative continues to support profitability expectations. However, after such a powerful rally, markets may be entering a period where good news is no longer enough on its own. The coming weeks could therefore look less like a continuation of the near-vertical advance seen since April and more like a consolidation phase, where investors demand further evidence that earnings can continue to outpace the growing macro headwinds.

Nasdaq 100 index

Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.

الأسواق العالمية تبحث عن التوازن

عوائد السندات ترتفع وسط ترقب لتقرير التضخم الأمريكي

بقلم: دانييلا هاثورن كبيرة محللي الأسواق في capital.com

افتتحت الأسواق العالمية الأسبوع على نبرة دفاعية، مسجلة تحولاً واضحاً بعد أسابيع من المكاسب الأحادية في الأصول ذات المخاطر العالية. و شهدت الأسهم ضغوطاً متزايدة، وامتد تراجع الذهب مؤخراً، فيما عاد المستثمرون إلى التوجه نحو الأصول الدفاعية التقليدية، مع ارتفاع كل من الدولار الأمريكي وعوائد سندات الخزانة وأسعار النفط.

الرسم البياني اليومي للذهب

الأداء السابق ليس مؤشراً موثوقاً للنتائج المستقبلية.

ويعزى هذا التحول إلى تجدد التوترات الجيوسياسية في الشرق الأوسط وتزايد التوقعات بأن الاحتياطي الفيدرالي سيُبقي على سياسته النقدية المتشددة في ظل استمرار التضخم. وقد عزز تقرير الوظائف الأمريكي يوم الجمعة هذا الاتجاه.

تشير مرونة سوق العمل إلى قدرة الاقتصاد الأمريكي على استيعاب ارتفاع أسعار الفائدة، مما يقلل من الضغوط على الفيدرالي لتخفيف السياسة النقدية. وبدلاً من ذلك، تميل الأسواق بشكل متزايد إلى توقع رفع الفائدة في الخطوة القادمة من الفيدرالي، وهو ما دفع العوائد إلى الارتفاع ودعم الدولار، في حين أثر سلباً على الأصول التي استفادت من توقعات انخفاض الفائدة، مثل الذهب وجزء من قطاع التكنولوجيا.

تقرير التضخم في قلب الاهتمام

يتجه التركيز الآن إلى تقرير مؤشر أسعار المستهلكين لهذا الأسبوع، الذي قد يؤكد أو يعيد النظر في هذه التوقعات. بعد قراءات مرتفعة لمؤشرات أسعار المستهلكين والمنتجين في الأشهر الماضية، يراقب المستثمرون عن كثب أي مؤشرات على ترسيخ الضغوط التضخمية في الاقتصاد.

إذا جاءت القراءة أقوى من المتوقع، فمن المرجح أن تعزز فرضية "الفائدة المرتفعة لفترة أطول" وتزيد الضغوط الصعودية على العوائد. أما إذا كانت القراءة أضعف، فقد تساعد على استقرار المعنويات وتخفف المخاوف من مزيد من التشديد النقدي.

التوترات الجيوسياسية تضيف تحديات جديدة

تبقى التطورات الجيوسياسية عنصراً أساسياً في المشهد، حيث أدت الضربات المتجددة بين إيران وإسرائيل إلى زيادة العلاوة المخاطرة في أسواق الطاقة، مما دفع أسعار النفط للصعود وأضاف مزيداً من الضغوط التضخمية.

يشكل هذا التزاوج بين ارتفاع تكاليف الطاقة والبيانات الاقتصادية المتينة خلفية أكثر تعقيداً أمام صناع السياسات والمستثمرين على حد سواء.

تغير  في ديناميكيات السوق

ربما يكون التطور الأهم هو ظهور مؤشرات على حركة سعرية ثنائية الاتجاه بعد أسابيع من المكاسب المتتالية. فقد أصبح مؤشرا ناسداك وS&P 500 في مراكز متوترة من الناحية الفنية والتموضع الاستثماري، حيث كان التركيز منصباً بشكل كبير على نمو الأرباح المدفوع بالذكاء الاصطناعي وآمال اتفاق سلام محتمل في الشرق الأوسط.

لا تزال هذه المواضيع قائمة، لكنها لم تعد تتحرك بمعزل عن عوامل أخرى. فارتفاع العوائد، وتزايد توقعات التضخم، وتجدد حالة عدم اليقين الجيوسياسي تدفع المستثمرين لإعادة تقييم التقييمات السوقية.

سوق صاعد ولكن بحذر

هذا لا يعني بالضرورة نهاية السوق الصاعد؛ إذ لا يزال نمو الأرباح قوياً للغاية، لا سيما في شركات التكنولوجيا الكبرى، وتستمر قصة الذكاء الاصطناعي في دعم توقعات الربحية على المدى الطويل.

مع ذلك، بعد هذا الارتفاع القوي، قد تدخل الأسواق مرحلة لا تكفي فيها الأخبار الإيجابية بمفردها للحفاظ على وتيرة الصعود. قد تشهد الأسابيع المقبلة مرحلة من التماسك، حيث يطالب المستثمرون بمزيد من الأدلة على قدرة الأرباح على تجاوز التحديات الاقتصادية المتزايدة.

الرسم البياني اليومي لمؤشر ناسداك 100

الأداء السابق ليس مؤشراً موثوقاً للنتائج المستقبلية.

Fundamentals of verification for national digital infrastructure

 

Rethinking trust:

Fundamentals of verification for national digital infrastructure

 

By Sunil Kumar, CEO of DataFlow Group

 

 

Trust has long been an essential component of effective governance. However, in the modern age of technology, it has evolved into something far more structural. As governments accelerate their digital transformation agendas, trust is no longer a concept or an aspirational value. It is evolving into its own infrastructure, and this is particularly evident in the UAE, where the rapid digitisation of public services is reshaping how individuals, businesses, and institutions interact.

 

From paperless services to smart courts, the nation has established itself as a global leader in digital governance. International benchmarking consistently places the UAE at the forefront of integrated digital identity, and this is with good reason.. The UAE Digital Government Strategy 2025 and the UAE Strategy for Artificial Intelligence 2031 both demonstrate this, serving as operational blueprints with verification infrastructure at their centre.

 

AI Era has Transformed Fraud

Fraud is no longer limited to forged documents or basic impersonation. It is faster, more scalable, and significantly harder to detect. The UAE Cybersecurity Council’s State of Scams in the UAE 2024 report found that 50 per cent of those surveyed experienced AI-enabled scams, reflecting the growing sophistication of digital fraud in the region, especially with regard to AI-driven techniques in cybercrime.

 

Globally, this trend is similarly pronounced. The World Economic Forum’s Global Cybersecurity Outlook 2026 highlights cyber-enabled fraud as one of the most prominent global threats. According to the report, 87 per cent of businesses are facing increased AI-related vulnerabilities, while 94 per cent expect AI to be the most influential factor shaping cybersecurity in 2026. At a corporate level, identity fraud is also growing in complexity. A global survey by Regula shows that one in three organisations has already encountered deepfake, biometric fraud, or identity spoofing incidents. The conclusion is therefore clear – as economies go digital-first, the critical vulnerability is no longer the transaction itself but the identity behind it.

 

Reinforcing Verification as a System

Verification has traditionally been viewed as a step in the process or a field to be checked. That model is no longer sufficient. Deepfake technologies, synthetic identities, and AI-generated documents have all completely altered the threat landscape. Today, verification needs to be an ongoing, intelligence-driven system that confirms authenticity at the source. This is where Primary Source Verification (PSV) becomes indispensable. By confirming credentials directly with issuing authorities, PSV transforms verification from a surface check to a source-confirmed process, significantly reducing exposure to fabricated or altered records.

 

Simultaneously, AI-driven document analysis improves decision-making speed and accuracy by enabling real-time detection of tampering and inconsistencies. Notably, these capabilities are combining into unified verification frameworks across governments and regulated industries. DataFlow Group operates at this layer, working closely with businesses, governments, and regulators to validate identities and credentials at the primary source on a larger scale.. We define verification not as an administrative function but as a strategic capability.

 

Developing Trust in Public Infrastructure

The latest legislative and regulatory changes in the UAE indicate an extensive grasp of this shift in landscape. A prime example is the establishment of the English-language Notary Service within the Dubai International Financial Centre (DIFC) Courts framework under Dubai Law No. (2) of 2025.

 

The service incorporates AI-powered document verification and primary source authentication, enabling digital notarisation across multiple channels while maintaining the integrity that legal procedures demand.. In this context, verification is no longer a back-end function but a fundamental layer of governance supporting legal systems, workforce mobility, and cross-border transactions.

 

The Way Forward

As digital ecosystems grow, the question of whether fraud can be eradicated is no longer relevant. Determining if systems are built to detect, adapt, and react to threats in real time is the true challenge. Verification infrastructure will be key to shaping this future. Similar to payment networks or cloud infrastructure, verification is becoming a shared layer that modern economies progressively depend on by default.

 

For governments and regulators, the priority is clear. It is crucial for lawmakers to invest in source-based verification, use artificial intelligence responsibly, and expand verification frameworks across industries. Organisations, on the other hand, must transition from compliance-led checks to intelligence-driven, continuous verification models that adapt to new threats. For the UAE, guided by the long-term vision of the UAE Centennial 2071, trusted digital infrastructure will no longer be a supporting function but rather the foundation upon which everything else is designed.

 

-ends-

 

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THE 5 MOST COMMON STORAGE MISTAKES AND HOW TO AVOID THEM

 THE 5 MOST COMMON STORAGE MISTAKES AND HOW TO

AVOID THEM

 

Expert insights from Alexander Stuart, CEO of The Code, on how to better protect and manage belongings

 

From wardrobe overload to long-term damage, how The Code is redefining smarter storage and organisation

 

For hi-res images please click here

United Arab Emirates, Dubai, May 2026 - In today’s fast-paced lifestyles, storage isn’t just about finding extra space, it’s about protecting what you own. From everyday essentials to high-value items, how belongings are stored can directly impact their condition, longevity and usability over time, something increasingly being addressed through more advanced, technology-enabled storage solutions such as The Code.

“Storage is often treated as something you figure out later,” says Alexander Stuart, CEO of The Code. “But in reality, it should be part of how your home functions, particularly when it comes to preserving the items you value most.’’

From overcrowded wardrobes to damaged designer pieces, Alexander Stuart highlights five of the most common storage mistakes seen across homes and how to avoid them.

1. Storing items in the wrong parts of your home

Garages, balconies and spare rooms may feel like convenient overflow areas, but they are often the least suitable places to store anything of value. These spaces are typically exposed to fluctuating temperatures and humidity, which can quietly damage materials over time particularly leather, fabrics and wood. In addition, leather items and lighter-coloured clothing are especially prone to fading and colour damage when exposed to sunlight, while fur and wool pieces can absorb moisture and deteriorate in humid conditions.

“People underestimate how quickly heat and humidity can affect their belongings,” says Stuart. “We regularly see items, such as leather coats, fur coats and wool pieces that have deteriorated simply because they’ve been stored in the wrong environment.”

How to fix it:
Valuable or sensitive items including clothing, handbags, artwork and electronics should be stored in stable, climate-controlled environments where temperature and humidity are carefully managed. This is one of the key reasons services like The Code are being used, offering purpose-built storage designed specifically to preserve items over the long term.

2. Overcrowding your wardrobe (and not editing what you own)

An overcrowded wardrobe can lead to both damage and disorganisation. Clothing that is tightly packed is more likely to crease, lose shape and wear out more quickly, while limited visibility makes it harder to track what is being used.

 

"There's a growing shift towards more considered wardrobes," Stuart explains. "People are starting to prioritise visibility and accessibility over simply storing everything in one place and we're seeing that firsthand, with 30% of our clients now using us specifically for wardrobe rotations."

 

How to fix it:

Separate everyday essentials from seasonal or occasional pieces. Rotating items throughout the year helps protect them while creating a more functional and manageable wardrobe. This has led to a more ‘digital wardrobe’ approach, where items are stored off-site but remain visible, organised and accessible when needed - something The Code enables through its app-based platform.

 

3. Using the wrong storage materials

The materials used to store items can have a significant impact on their condition over time. Cardboard boxes can degrade, while sealed plastic containers can trap moisture, increasing the risk of mould, yellowing and fabric breakdown.

 

How to fix it:

Use breathable garment covers, structured boxes and protective wrapping designed to preserve items properly. For higher-value pieces, professional handling becomes particularly important. At The Code, each item is packed using specialist materials tailored to its category, ensuring protection throughout storage and transportation - a level of care difficult to achieve at home.

 

4. Losing track of what you’ve stored

Out of sight often becomes out of mind, leading to duplicate purchases, unused items and general disorganisation. Without a clear system, storage can quickly become inefficient.

 

How to fix it:

Create a simple inventory system - even basic labelling can make a difference. More advanced solutions now take this further through digital inventory systems. At The Code, items are photographed and catalogued, allowing users to view and manage their belongings at any time without needing physical access.

 

5. Trying to store everything at home

At a certain point, storage begins to impact how a home feels and functions. Overflowing wardrobes, cluttered rooms and items spilling into living spaces are often signs that space is being used inefficiently.

"The challenge isn't just a lack of space, it's how that space is being used," Stuart explains. "When everything is kept at home, it often leads to clutter and inefficiency. On average, our clients store around 50 items, the majority of which are wardrobe pieces and that says a lot about where the real need lies. The shift now is towards creating space for how people live day-to-day, while managing everything else in a more considered way."

How to fix it:
Adopt a more balanced approach by keeping frequently used items at home and moving seasonal or occasional belongings into a more structured system. Increasingly, external storage is being used as an extension of the home. The Code is designed around this approach, allowing clients to free up space while keeping their belongings organised, preserved and accessible when needed.

Rethinking how we store and live

In Dubai, storage isn’t just about space, it’s about how you live. With more residents travelling frequently, managing busy lifestyles and investing in higher-value belongings, there’s a growing shift towards smarter, more intentional storage solutions.

 

Services like The Code are part of that shift, combining climate-controlled storage, specialist handling and digital access to create a more flexible way of managing what you own.

 

To learn more or schedule a collection, visit https://www.thecode.ae.

 

ENDS

Strong momentum meets rising risks as markets test the next leg higher

Strong momentum meets rising risks as markets test the next leg higher

By Daniela Hathorn, senior market analyst at Capital.com

US indices continue to trade near highs, supported by robust earnings and resilient profit margins, particularly in large-cap tech. At the same time, oil prices remain elevated due to ongoing tensions in the Middle East, keeping a geopolitical risk premium embedded across markets. This divergence highlights a market that is still willing to lean into growth and earnings, but is doing so against a backdrop of tightening financial conditions and persistent uncertainty. Bond markets are beginning to reflect that tension more clearly. Yields have moved higher in recent sessions, driven by a combination of elevated energy prices and a more cautious tone from central banks. The Federal Reserve has reinforced a “wait-and-see” stance, but with a bias toward keeping policy restrictive if inflation proves sticky. This has helped support the US dollar and tighten financial conditions at the margins, even as equities continue to push higher. The result is a market that appears confident in the near-term outlook, but increasingly sensitive to any shifts in the macro narrative.

That brings the focus to this week’s US CPI release. Markets will be watching closely for signs of whether the recent rise in oil prices is starting to feed into broader inflation pressures. Headline CPI is likely to be influenced by energy, but the key for investors will be the core and “supercore” measures, which provide a clearer view of underlying price dynamics. A softer print would reinforce the idea that inflation remains contained and could support risk assets by easing pressure on yields. However, a stronger-than-expected reading could reignite concerns about persistent inflation, push yields higher and test the resilience of equities. In essence, markets are currently pricing a best-case balance: strong earnings, manageable inflation and contained geopolitical risk. The CPI data has the potential to either validate that view or challenge it. With equities at elevated levels and macro risks still present, the margin for error is narrowing, leaving markets increasingly exposed to surprises in the data.

 

تحليل: الأسواق العالمية تختبر موجة صعود جديدة وسط زخم قوي ومخاطر متزايدة.

بقلم: دانييلا هاثورن كبيرة محللي الأسواق في capital.com

تواصل المؤشرات الأمريكية التداول بالقرب من أعلى مستوياتها، مدعومة بأرباح قوية وهوامش ربح متينة، خصوصاً في قطاع التكنولوجيا الكبرى. في المقابل، تستمر أسعار النفط في الارتفاع بسبب حالة عدم اليقين الإقليمي، مما يبقي تسعير المخاطر الإقليمية مدمجاً في الأسواق. ومن هنا، يعكس هذا التباين سوقاً لا تزال تميل إلى التركيز على النمو والأرباح، لكنها تعمل في ظل ظروف مالية متشددة واستمرار حالة عدم اليقين.

وعلى صعيد آخر،بدأت أسواق السندات تعكس هذا التوتر بوضوح أكبر، حيث ارتفعت العوائد في الجلسات الأخيرة نتيجة مزيج من ارتفاع أسعار الطاقة وتوجه أكثر تحفظاً من البنوك المركزية. عزز الاحتياطي الفيدرالي موقف الانتظار والترقب، مع ميل للحفاظ على سياسة نقدية مشددة إذا استمر التضخم عند مستويات مرتفعة. هذا الدعم ساهم في تقوية الدولار الأمريكي وتشديد الظروف المالية بشكل محدود، في حين استمرت الأسهم في الصعود. والنتيجة سوق تبدو واثقة من توقعاتها على المدى القريب، لكنها أصبحت أكثر حساسية لأي تغيرات في السرد الاقتصادي الكلي.

التركيز على بيانات مؤشر أسعار المستهلك الأمريكية

يتجه اهتمام الأسواق هذا الأسبوع نحو صدور تقرير مؤشر أسعار المستهلك (CPI) الأمريكي. تراقب الأسواق عن كثب تأثير ارتفاع أسعار النفط مؤخراً على الضغوط التضخمية الأوسع نطاقاً. من المتوقع أن تتأثر أرقام التضخم الرئيسية بأسعار الطاقة، لكن التركيز الأساسي للمستثمرين سيكون على مقاييس التضخم الأساسية و"السوبر كور"، التي تقدم رؤية أوضح للديناميكيات السعرية الكامنة.

قد تدعم قراءة ضعيفة للتضخم فكرة استمرار السيطرة عليه، مما يعزز الأصول ذات المخاطر عبر تخفيف الضغط على العوائد. أما إذا جاءت القراءة أقوى من المتوقع، فقد تُعيد إشعال المخاوف من ضغوط تضخمية مستمرة، مما يدفع العوائد للارتفاع ويختبر قدرة الأسهم على الصمود. في الجوهر، تسعر الأسواق حالياً سيناريو أفضل الحالات، الذي يشمل أرباحاً قوية، تضخماً يمكن التحكم فيه، وتحديات إقليمية تحت السيطرة. وقد يكون لتقرير مؤشر أسعار المستهلك القدرة على تأكيد هذا السيناريو أو تحديه. ومع ارتفاع مستويات الأسهم واستمرار المخاطر الاقتصادية الكبرى، يضيق هامش الخطأ، مما يجعل الأسواق أكثر عرضة للمفاجآت في البيانات.

 

-انتهى-

 

 

Markets fixate on Hormuz as ‘Malacca Premium’ comes into focus

 Markets fixate on Hormuz as ‘Malacca Premium’ comes into focus

  

April 28 2026

 

 

 

Global markets remain fixated on disruption in the Strait of Hormuz. That focus is understandable, but it risks missing a more consequential vulnerability now coming into view, warns Nigel Green, CEO of financial advisory giant deVere Group.

 

What he describes as the “Malacca Premium” is now capturing the rising cost of insuring, shipping, and moving energy through one of the world’s most critical trade corridors.

 

The Strait of Malacca, a narrow waterway between Indonesia and Malaysia that channels trade past Singapore, handles over a fifth of global maritime commerce and ranks as the world’s busiest chokepoint.

 

“The Malacca Premium is coming at us in real time. Markets are under-pricing how quickly disruption in one chokepoint can ripple through the entire system,” comments Nigel Green.

 

In the first half of 2025 alone, over 23 million barrels of oil per day passed through the route, supplying China, Japan, and South Korea. The volume leaves little room for disruption without global consequences.

 

Concern has intensified because of how quickly the narrative around Malacca changed. In the wake of disruption in Hormuz, a senior Indonesian official briefly raised the possibility of introducing transit tolls for vessels using the strait before the idea was swiftly withdrawn and regional governments reaffirmed that passage would remain open and free.

 

The signal, however, has already shifted market thinking.

 

“The fact that tolls were even mentioned tells you everything about how the risk profile is changing,” says the deVere CEO.

 

“This is no longer just about physical disruption. It’s about political leverage and how quickly assumptions can be challenged.

 

“The strait operates under international rules guaranteeing transit passage, yet markets are now confronting a more uncomfortable reality: legal protections do not eliminate geopolitical risk.”

 

Global trade remains heavily concentrated through a handful of narrow corridors. The assumption of uninterrupted flow through these arteries has underpinned decades of efficiency gains.

 

“The assumption is now under strain—and the intensifying Malacca Premium reflects the cost.”

 

Shipping insurance, freight rates, and energy pricing are already responding to rising sensitivity. Even minor disruptions or policy signals can ripple quickly through supply chains given the density of traffic moving through the corridor.

 

“The market has spent years optimising for efficiency,” Nigel Green says.

 

“What it hasn’t done is price fragility properly. The Malacca Premium is that repricing—and it’s unlikely to be gradual if conditions deteriorate.”

 

The implications for investors are immediate. “Exposure to seamless, low-cost global logistics is becoming more fragile, while businesses with flexibility, pricing power and alternative routing capability are better positioned as risk is repriced.”

 

Disruption does not need to materialise at scale to move markets. The anticipation alone—through insurance costs, freight rates and energy volatility—is enough to reshape returns.

 

China’s long-standing concern over reliance on the Malacca Strait, often referred to as the “Malacca Dilemma”, adds further weight.

 

As the world’s largest oil importer, its exposure amplifies the global consequences of any instability in the corridor.

 

Nigel Green concludes: “Investors need to understand the speed at which this risk can escalate.

 

“The Malacca Premium is taking shape now. If this corridor comes under sustained pressure, the impact on global trade, energy markets and asset prices could be immediate and significant.

 

“I suspect that the Malacca Premium, which is taking shape now, is likely to become a defining force in global trade and markets.”

 

-ENDS-

Markets face judgement on three fronts

Markets face judgement on three fronts

By Daniela Hathorn, senior market analyst at Capital.com

Markets are heading into one of the most consequential weeks of the year, where three major forces collide: geopolitics, earnings and central bank policy. On the geopolitical side, the US–Iran conflict continues to inject uncertainty, but its influence on markets has shifted. Rather than dominating price action, it has become a background risk that flares up intermittently. Oil remains elevated, but equities have largely decoupled, suggesting investors are betting that escalation will be avoided or contained. That said, any renewed disruption to energy flows could quickly reintroduce volatility.

The real focus this week is earnings, particularly from Big Tech. Multiple “Magnificent 7” companies, including Amazon, Microsoft, Meta and Alphabet reporting on Wednesday, with Apple following suit on Thursday. These firms carry enormous weight in the indices, and their results, and guidance, will be critical in determining whether the rally in equities is justified. So far, strong earnings expectations and rising profit margins have underpinned the move higher, but the bar is high. Markets are looking not just for solid results, but confirmation that margins can withstand higher energy costs and that AI-driven investment continues to deliver returns.

At the same time, the Federal Reserve meeting adds another layer of complexity. While rates are widely expected to remain unchanged, the focus will be on the Fed’s reaction function. With inflation risks rising due to higher oil prices, the Fed is likely to lean toward a cautious, “wait-and-see” stance. Any indication that rate cuts are being pushed further out could tighten financial conditions and challenge the current equity rally. It will also be Powell's final meeting as Fed Chairman, so markets will also want to know what comes next. 

Put together, this week is less about any single event and more about whether the current market narrative holds up under scrutiny. Equities are pricing a best-case scenario: contained geopolitical risk, resilient earnings and stable policy. If Big Tech delivers and the Fed remains predictable, the rally can extend. But if earnings disappoint or policy signals shift, the combination of stretched positioning and elevated expectations could quickly lead to a reassessment.

 

تحليل:  أسبوع حاسم للأسواق العالمية بين أرباح التكنولوجيا والتوترات الإقليمية.

بقلم: دانييلا هاثورن كبيرة محللي الأسواق في capital.com

تدخل الأسواق العالمية  أحد أكثر الأسابيع أهمية هذا العام وسط تقاطع ثلاثة عوامل رئيسية: التوترات الإقليمية، أرباح الشركات، وسياسات البنوك المركزية. على الصعيد الجيوسياسي، لا تزال التوترات الإقليمية تضيف حالة من عدم اليقين، لكنها لم تعد تهيمن على حركة الأسواق كما في السابق.

 بدلاً من ذلك، أصبحت هذه المخاطر بمثابة عوامل خلفية تظهر بين الحين والآخر. ورغم استمرار ارتفاع أسعار النفط، فقد فصلت الأسواق المالية نفسها إلى حد كبير عن هذه العوامل، مما يشير إلى أن المستثمرين يراهنون على احتواء أي تصعيد محتمل. ومع ذلك، فإن أي اضطراب جديد في تدفقات الطاقة قد يعيد التقلبات إلى الأسواق بسرعة.

أما التركيز الأساسي هذا الأسبوع فهو على أرباح الشركات، لا سيما في قطاع التكنولوجيا. ستعلن العديد من الشركات الرائدة، مثل أمازون ومايكروسوفت وميتا وألفابيت، عن تقارير أرباحها يوم الأربعاء، فيما ستعلن أبل عن نتائجها يوم الخميس. وتحظى هذه الشركات بثقل كبير في المؤشرات المالية، وستكون نتائجها وتوجيهاتها أساسية لتحديد ما إذا كان ارتفاع الأسهم مبرراً. حتى الآن، دعمت التوقعات القوية للأرباح وتحسن هوامش الربحية هذا الاتجاه الصاعد، لكن التوقعات مرتفعة للغاية. الأسواق تبحث ليس فقط عن نتائج قوية، بل عن تأكيدات بأن هوامش الربحية قادرة على تحمل ارتفاع تكاليف الطاقة وأن الاستثمارات في الذكاء الاصطناعي تواصل تحقيق عوائد ملموسة.

وفي الوقت ذاته، يضيف اجتماع الاحتياطي الفيدرالي طبقة أخرى من التعقيد. فرغم أن التوقعات تشير إلى الإبقاء على أسعار الفائدة دون تغيير، إلا أن التركيز سيكون على كيفية استجابة الفيدرالي للتطورات. ومع ارتفاع مخاطر التضخم بسبب صعود أسعار النفط، من المرجح أن يتبنى الاحتياطي الفيدرالي موقفاً حذراً يعتمد على "الانتظار والمراقبة".

بشكل عام، لا يدور هذا الأسبوع حول حدث واحد فقط، بل حول ما إذا كان السرد الحالي للأسواق يمكنه الصمود أمام التدقيق. فقد تم تسعير الأسهم وفقاً لسيناريو متفائل يشمل احتواء المخاطر الإقليمية، واستمرار قوة أرباح الشركات، وثبات السياسات النقدية. إذا قدم قطاع التكنولوجيا أداءً قوياً وحافظ الاحتياطي الفيدرالي على استقراره، يمكن أن يستمر الارتفاع. ولكن إذا جاءت الأرباح مخيبة للآمال أو تغيرت الإشارات السياسية، فقد يؤدي ذلك إلى إعادة تقييم سريعة نتيجة التوقعات المرتفعة والمراكز المتمددة.

 

 

-انتهى-

 

From Iran to NATO’s Eastern Flank, Investor Warns of Rising Drone Risks to Private Companies

 

From Iran to NATO’s Eastern Flank, Investor Warns of Rising Drone Risks to Private Companies

Daiva Rakauskaitė, CFA, partner and fund manager of Aneli Capital (Source: Aneli Capital)

 

European defence, security, and resilience startups raised $8.7 billion last year, up 55% year on year, according to a report by Dealroom and the NATO Innovation Fund, while European Allies and Canada increased defence spending by 20%. Now, businesses should also step up investment in protecting their operations, an investor says.

April 16, 2026 – Vilnius, Lithuania. Recent damage to Amazon Web Services’ cloud operations in the Middle East during a drone strike, as well as repeated drone incursions near NATO’s eastern flank, highlights how private critical infrastructure can be exposed to low-cost aerial threats. According to an investor, this signals that not only governments but also businesses should start investing in defence systems and be ready to safeguard their operations.

On April 1, Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRG) threatened to target a list of US-linked technology companies operating in the region, including Google, Microsoft, Apple, Nvidia, according to media reports and IRG-linked channels. The threat was made as a response to the US and in retaliation for US and Israeli strikes on Iran.

Meanwhile, Amazon Web Services cloud operations in Bahrain were reportedly damaged for a second time by a nearby drone strike amid the conflict in Iran.

According to Daiva Rakauskaitė, manager at fund management company Aneli Capital, the conflict in the Middle East shows that private companies, especially those providing critical infrastructure, such as cloud platforms and data centers, are increasingly becoming targets for any adversaries.

“Recent threats and attacks against technology companies are a clear example of how private-sector infrastructure can be disrupted alongside traditional military or state targets. With drones becoming cheaper and more sophisticated every year, attacks against private companies can become more common, and businesses should be prepared,” she says.

Even before the war in Iran, countries and private investors had already significantly increased defence spending. A recent NATO Secretary General’s Annual Report shows that European Allies and Canada last year increased defence spending by 20%, compared to 2024.

Meanwhile, venture capital investments in defence startups, including those that include dual-use technologies used by civilians, grew to $49.1 billion from $27.2 billion a year earlier, according to PitchBook calculations.

A report by Pitchbook shows that autonomous systems were among the most funded startups, while counter-unmanned aerial systems and autonomous manufacturing are rapidly emerging as priorities.

According to Rakauskaitė, the war in Iran can further encourage capital flow to anti-drone systems, and should act as a wake-up call for businesses operating critical infrastructure not only in the Middle East. Another region where strategic companies should protect against drone threats is NATO’s eastern flank, where incursions by flying objects from neighbouring countries have disrupted airports, Rakauskaitė says.

For example, last year, a drone in Poland disrupted airports and Ryanair operations. At the start of April, Lithuanian authorities held exercises at Achema, the largest fertilizer producer in the Baltic states, simulating a drone attack on the company’s premises and the response to a fire and a major chemical accident,  reinforcing the urgency for strategic companies to prepare for similar incidents.

“As countries and venture capitalists invest more in defence technologies, companies should use this moment to reassess their risk exposure and invest in solutions that help protect their operations, reputation, and employees. For businesses operating near NATO’s eastern flank and all to the west flank, the growing frequency of airspace incidents should prompt a broader rethink of resilience planning, from site protection to crisis protocols and insurance assumptions,” Rakauskaitė says.

She stresses that Central and Eastern European countries, including the Baltics and Poland, are well-positioned to become a dual-use defence hub. CEE countries have lots of hidden talent, and are located next to Ukraine, which gives them abilities to test their technologies in the real world.

A recent report by Dealroom and the NATO innovation fund shows that European defence, security, and resilience startups last year raised $8.7 billion, while Central and Eastern Europe showed the fastest growth in deal velocity.

 

— END —

Equity markets remain optimistic about de-escalation as earnings season approaches

 Equity markets remain optimistic about de-escalation as earnings season approaches

By Daniela Hathorn, senior market analyst at Capital.com

Markets are increasingly trading on optimism around the Middle East ceasefire, with equities pushing higher as investors lean into the narrative that the agreement will hold and that the worst of the energy shock may be behind us. The rebound across major indices reflects a clear shift from pricing escalation to pricing stabilisation. However, this move appears to be driven more by sentiment and positioning than by a meaningful improvement in underlying fundamentals, leaving markets exposed should that narrative be challenged.

S&P 500 daily chart

Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.

Looking at the charts, the recovery has been technically constructive but still tentative. The S&P 500 has reclaimed the 6,700–6,800 region, moving back above key moving averages and reversing much of the recent breakdown, while the Nasdaq 100 is showing a similar recovery, pushing back toward resistance after a sharp drawdown. Meanwhile, the DAX has bounced strongly from its lows, reflecting improved global risk appetite. Momentum indicators such as RSI have recovered from oversold territory, suggesting the worst of the recent selling pressure has eased. However, these indices are now approaching key resistance zones, which could act as a ceiling if the fundamental backdrop fails to improve.

The key issue is that markets are effectively front running a positive outcome by assuming that the ceasefire will translate into a durable de-escalation and a normalisation of energy markets. Oil’s pullback supports that view, as the risk premium tied to supply disruption has begun to unwind. But this remains a fragile assumption. The ceasefire is still in its early stages, and the structural drivers of the conflict, particularly around the Strait of Hormuz, have not been fully resolved. Any deterioration in the situation could quickly reverse the current risk-on positioning.

That’s why the focus may now shift toward the upcoming earnings season, which will provide more concrete evidence of how companies are navigating this environment. So far, equity markets have largely looked through the potential impact of higher energy costs and tighter financial conditions. But margins are likely to come under pressure, particularly in energy-intensive sectors, as input costs have risen and may not yet be fully reflected in corporate guidance. If earnings confirm that companies have been able to absorb or pass on these costs, the current rally could find further support. However, if margins begin to compress or guidance is revised lower, it could challenge the market’s optimistic stance.

In essence, equities are currently trading on hope rather than confirmation. The ceasefire narrative has been enough to stabilise sentiment and drive a rebound, but the sustainability of that move will depend on both geopolitical developments and the hard data coming through earnings. Until then, markets are likely to remain sensitive to headlines, with the balance of risks still tilted toward volatility rather than a clear, sustained trend.

تحليل:  التفاؤل حول وقف إطلاق النار ينعش الأسواق العالمية .

بقلم: دانييلا هاثورن كبيرة محللي الأسواق في capital.com

تتداول الأسواق العالمية حالياً على موجة من التفاؤل بشأن وقف إطلاق النار في الشرق الأوسط، حيث تشهد الأسهم ارتفاعات ملحوظة مدفوعة بتوقعات المستثمرين بأن الاتفاق سيصمد، وأن أسوأ تداعيات صدمة الطاقة قد أصبحت خلفنا. يعكس هذا الانتعاش عبر المؤشرات الكبرى تحولاً واضحاً من تسعير التصعيد إلى تسعير الاستقرار. ومع ذلك، يبدو أن هذا التحرك يعتمد بشكل أكبر على المزاج العام وتموضع المستثمرين، بدلاً من تحسن جوهري في الأساسيات الاقتصادية، مما يجعل الأسواق عرضة للضغوط في حال تعثر هذه التوقعات.

 

الرسم البياني اليومي لمؤشر S&P 500

 

الأداء السابق ليس مؤشراً موثوقاً للنتائج المستقبلية.

 

من الناحية التقنية، كان التعافي ملحوظاً لكنه لا يزال متحفظاً. استعاد مؤشر S&P 500 منطقة 6,700–6,800، متجاوزاً المتوسطات المتحركة الرئيسية، بينما شهد مؤشر ناسداك 100 انتعاشاً مشابهاً، متجهاً نحو مستويات مقاومة رئيسية بعد انخفاض حاد.

 وفي الوقت ذاته، ارتفع مؤشر داكس من أدنى مستوياته، مما يعكس تحسن شهية المخاطرة عالمياً. كما تعافت مؤشرات الزخم مثل RSI من مناطق التشبع البيعي، مما يشير إلى تراجع ضغوط البيع الأخيرة. ومع ذلك، فإن هذه المؤشرات تقترب الآن من مستويات مقاومة رئيسية قد تشكل عائقاً إذا لم تتحسن الخلفية الاقتصادية بشكل كافٍ.

القضية الاساسية هي أن الأسواق العالمية تسعّر افتراضات إيجابية، مع الاعتقاد بأن وقف إطلاق النار سيتحول إلى تهدئة دائمة واستقرار في أسواق الطاقة. يدعم تراجع أسعار النفط هذا الرأي، حيث بدأت علاوة المخاطر المرتبطة بتعطيل الإمدادات في التراجع. لكن هذا الافتراض لا يزال هشاً، حيث إن وقف إطلاق النار في مراحله الأولى، ولم يتم معالجة العوامل الهيكلية للتوترات الإقليمية، خاصة تلك المتعلقة بمضيق هرمز. وأي تدهور في الوضع قد يعكس سريعاً مراكز المخاطرة الحالية.

لهذا السبب، قد يتحول التركيز الآن إلى موسم الأرباح القادم، والذي سيقدم رؤية أوضح حول كيفية تعامل الشركات مع هذه البيئة. حتى الآن، تجاهلت أسواق الأسهم التأثير المحتمل لارتفاع تكاليف الطاقة وتشديد الأوضاع المالية. لكن من المرجح أن تواجه الهوامش ضغوطاً، خاصة في القطاعات كثيفة استهلاك الطاقة، حيث ارتفعت تكاليف المدخلات ولم يتم استيعابها بالكامل بعد في التوجيهات المالية للشركات. إذا أظهرت الأرباح أن الشركات تمكنت من استيعاب أو تمرير هذه التكاليف، فقد يجد الانتعاش الحالي دعماً إضافياً. أما إذا بدأت الهوامش في الانكماش أو تم تخفيض التوجيهات، فقد يتعرض التفاؤل في السوق للاختبار.

بالمحصلة، تستند تداولات الأسهم حالياً إلى التفاؤل أكثر من الحقائق الملموسة. وقد كان وقف إطلاق النار كافياً لاستقرار المزاج العام ودفع الانتعاش، لكن استدامة هذا التحرك ستعتمد على التطورات الجيوسياسية والبيانات الملموسة القادمة من موسم الأرباح. وحتى ذلك الحين، من المرجح أن تظل الأسواق حساسة للعناوين الرئيسية، مع ميل نحو تقلبات أعلى بدلاً من اتجاه واضح ومستدام.

 

-انتهى-

 Equity markets remain optimistic about de-escalation as earnings season approaches.docx

التفاؤل حول وقف إطلاق النار ينعش الأسواق العالمية ..docx